BlockBeats report, on June 18, "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said that at the first Fed meeting chaired by Waugh, there are three key points to watch. Will the phrase indicating a "dovish tilt" be removed? If so, what will replace it? Since 2024, a single sentence in policy statements about "additional adjustments" has consistently signaled to markets that the next interest rate move is more likely to be a cut than a hike. This phrasing drew criticism at the last Fed meeting and now appears increasingly untenable. Removing it could satisfy all sides: hawks want it gone, while Waugh can frame the move as a reform rather than a signal of a shift toward a hawkish stance. Even Trump had previewed this action during Waugh’s swearing-in ceremony.
Will the dot plot take over as the guiding tool? Who will predict rate hikes? The Fed will release its first interest rate projections since March, when 12 of 19 officials anticipated at least one rate cut by 2026. Now, most expect no cuts; I’m watching how many predict hikes—and whether Walsh, long skeptical of the dot plot, will submit his own forecast or downplay its significance by abstaining from voting.
How will Walsh communicate at the press conference? The Fed chair’s statements move markets only if people believe he can command a majority—that is, his words reflect the committee’s direction, not just his personal views. Walsh leads a group that is divided and not necessarily fully under his control. If he accurately conveys his colleagues’ perspectives, he can begin to establish authority as their spokesperson; if not, his colleagues will express their views elsewhere—such as through dissenting votes. Under a chair inclined to reduce signaling, those “dissenting votes” themselves may become tools of communication. (Jin10)