As per ChainCatcher, according to CME's 'FedWatch' tool, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026 with an 80.1% probability. The chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is 19.9%. By March 2026, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 44.7%, with a 47.1% chance of no rate change and an 8.2% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.
Fed to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in January 2026 with 80.1% Probability
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Summary
According to CME's 'FedWatch' tool, the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady in January 2026, with an 80.1% probability. A 25-basis-point cut is seen at 19.9%. By March 2026, the chance of a 25-basis-point cut rises to 44.7%, while the EU Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation continues to shape global policy. The likelihood of no change remains at 47.1%, with an 8.2% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.
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