BlockBeats news, on June 4, as the本月's interest rate meeting approaches, market expectations for a Fed rate cut continue to cool. Reuters columnist Mike Dolan stated that the last remaining expectation of a single rate cut this year within the dot plot may be completely removed, and there is even a possibility that new Chair Kevin Warsh could push to eliminate the dot plot mechanism altogether.
Currently, the AI investment boom and the situation in the Middle East have pushed up energy prices, reigniting inflationary pressures, while the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with private employment adding 122,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations; markets have begun pricing in the possibility of rate hikes this year.
The report indicates that the meeting is not expected to immediately raise rates, but the policy statement may further downplay the accommodative stance. Previously, several officials have proposed removing relevant forward guidance, and even Waller, who was previously dovish, has recently shifted toward supporting a tighter stance.
Tim Duy, an economist at SGH Macro Insights, said that the Federal Reserve is reassessing its rate-cut decisions from last year, with an increasing number of officials beginning to lay the groundwork for future rate hikes. Meanwhile, Walsh’s appointment of conservative economist Paul Winfree—who has advocated for weakening the Fed’s employment goal—as an advisor has heightened market concerns about a more hawkish stance.
Analysts believe that, as expectations for easing fade, the Fed's policy cycle may have shifted, potentially leading to significantly increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury and interest rate markets in the second half of the year.