In accordance with ChainThink, as of December 22, 2025, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 has dropped to 19.9%, with an 80.1% chance of maintaining current interest rates. The likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through March 2026 stands at 44.7%, while the chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by March is 46.5%, and a 50-basis-point cut is at 8.8%. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28 and March 18, 2026.
Fed's January 2026 Rate Cut Probability Drops to 19.9%, No Change Expected Until March at 44.7%
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Summary
Fed news as of December 22, 2025, shows a 19.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January 2026, with an 80.1% likelihood of rates staying unchanged. The probability of no rate change through March is 44.7%, while a 25-basis-point cut by March is at 46.5%. Traders are advised to monitor altcoins to watch amid shifting expectations. The next FOMC meetings are set for January 28 and March 18, 2026.
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