ChainCatcher report, according to CNBC, CME's "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Fed holding rates steady by July is 64% (down from 91% prior to the decision), the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 35.1% (up from 8.9%), and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 1% (up from 0%). By December, the probability of holding rates steady is 14.2% (down from 38.2%), the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 36.4% (down from 43%), the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 33.8% (up from 16.2%), the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point hike is 13.5% (up from 2.4%), and the probability of a cumulative 100-basis-point hike is 2.1% (up from 0.1%).
Fed Rate Hike Probabilities Shift After Policy Decision
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Summary
According to ChainCatcher, the CME 'Fed Watch' tool now indicates a 64% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July, down from 91%. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike has risen to 35.1% from 8.9%, while a 50-basis-point hike is at 1%. Regulatory policy shifts appear to be influencing these changes. By December, a 25-basis-point hike is projected at 36.4%, a 50-basis-point hike at 33.8%, and a 75-basis-point hike at 13.5%. CFT metrics show ongoing efforts to stabilize financial flows.
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