BlockBeats report: On May 8, during the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, greater分歧 tends to lead to a longer period of maintaining rates unchanged. At the most recent FOMC meeting in April 2026, the Fed recorded its largest分歧 since 1992 with an 8-4 vote to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive hold. One official supported an immediate 25-basis-point rate cut, while three others agreed to maintain rates but expressed a dovish tilt in their dissenting statements. Deep divisions persist within the Fed regarding inflation risks, labor market conditions, and the neutral rate level.
As Federal Reserve members' assessments of the economic outlook diverge further, reaching a consensus on interest rate adjustments becomes more difficult, instead reinforcing an "inertia" to maintain the status quo. Policy is often paused for longer at current levels to await more data that can reduce uncertainty. After the federal funds rate has approached its neutral range, this divergence directly increases the likelihood that rates will remain unchanged for an extended period, rather than shifting quickly—expecting a prolonged market waiting period.
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at all throughout 2026 is 72.6%, the probability of a total rate cut of 25 basis points is 8.5%, the probability of a total rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.3%, the probability of a total rate hike of 25 basis points is 17.6%, and the probability of a total rate hike of 50 basis points is 1%.
Additionally, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in June is 4.1%.