Author: seed.eth, Bitpush News
After three consecutive interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve finally pressed the "pause button" at its first policy meeting of 2026.
Early Thursday morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged within the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. This somewhat "bland" decision aligned with over 97% of market expectations, but it also revealed subtle divisions within the policy-making body: two members of the Federal Reserve voted against the decision, supporting a further 25-basis-point rate cut.
The shoe has hit the ground, but the direction remains unclear.
In its policy statement, the Federal Reserve maintained a relatively cautious tone: the economy is still "expanding at a solid pace," inflation "has eased but remains above target," and signs of cooling in the labor market are emerging, though they have not yet posed systemic risks. The core message is very clear—the monetary policy has transitioned from the "proactive adjustment" phase to the "monitoring and validation" phase.
It is worth noting that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not a monolithic body. Two members voted in favor of further rate cuts, indicating that there are still policy disagreements between the need to bring inflation down and the risk of economic slowdown. However, overall, the Federal Reserve is clearly reluctant to commit to new policy measures under the current circumstances, instead choosing to leave the decision to future data.
This stance sets the tone for the market: clear directional guidance is unlikely in the short term, and asset pricing will focus more on "changes in expectations" rather than "changes in policies."
The current federal funds rate market pricing indicates that investors generally expect interest rates to remain unchanged this quarter, with the timing of the first rate cut now pointing to June of this year. The market further anticipates that the rate-cutting cycle may pause by 2027.
However, there remains a significant divergence among institutions regarding the interest rate path beyond this quarter: Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs predict rate cuts in June and September, respectively. Barclays believes rate cuts may occur in June and December, while JPMorgan expects rates to remain unchanged throughout the year.
Macro Market: Gold Shines Alone, Other Assets Remain Unremarkable
If the Federal Reserve's decision itself did not cause much of a stir, then the divergence in asset performance is the real signal worth paying attention to.
After the interest rate decision was announced,The price of spot gold has surged sharply, breaking through the 5,500 USD per ounce level for the first time.In just four trading days, gold prices surged from slightly below $5,000, breaking through multiple round-number levels, and climbed more than $500 in total, achieving a weekly gain of 10%. This speed and magnitude have made gold the undisputed star of the global markets at present.
The recent strength in gold is not simply a matter of interest rate trading logic. Although the Federal Reserve has paused its rate cuts, after a series of accommodative measures, its policy is now approaching a neutral stance, and the marginal constraint from real interest rates has eased. At the same time, the persistence of inflation, trade tensions, political uncertainties, and global policy competition have intertwined, continuously amplifying demand for safe-haven assets. Amid these overlapping uncertainties, capital has chosen the most traditional and widely accepted safe-haven asset—gold.
In stark contrast to gold,Other assets showed a flat performance.After the decision, the U.S. stock market remained in a narrow consolidation range without showing a trend-breaking move; the U.S. dollar index experienced limited fluctuations; Treasury yields saw minor adjustments, but did not trigger a systematic flight-to-safety rally.
The same applies to crypto assets. After the news was released, the price of Bitcoin briefly dipped from $89,600 to the $89,000 level before quickly rebounding to around $89,300. The fluctuation was less than 1%. Ethereum (ETH) hovered near the $3,000 level, while major altcoins like Solana and XRP remained within their previous consolidation ranges.
The market has provided the most straightforward answer: when the direction is unclear, gold is once again pushed back to center stage, while other assets enter a state of waiting.
A More Important Question Than Rate Cuts: Who Will Shape the Next Phase of the Federal Reserve?
After the interest rate decision was announced, the market's focus quickly shifted. Rather than "when to cut rates," investors began to focus on another question: who will lead the next phase of the Federal Reserve?
According to the latest data from Polymarket, in the betting market on "Who will Trump nominate as the Federal Reserve Chair," the odds for several candidates have started to diverge:
Rick Rieder: The Most Preferred "Pragmatist" by the Market (Approximately 34%)
The person with the highest current betting probability is Rick Rieder, with a support rate of approximately 34%, which has shown a noticeable increase recently.
Rieder currently serves as the Global Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at BlackRock. He has long been deeply involved in bond market and macro asset allocation decisions, and is regarded as one of the few individuals who truly spans the domains of "policy, markets, and capital structure." His public comments often emphasize financial market stability, the efficiency of policy transmission, and the avoidance of unnecessary systemic shocks.
In the eyes of the market, if Rieder were to become the Federal Reserve Chair, it would mean that central bank policymaking would place greater emphasis on financial conditions and asset price signals, maintaining policy flexibility within the bounds of acceptable inflation. This expectation explains why he is gaining increasing support in prediction markets—it represents a bet on "predictability" and "market friendliness."
Kevin Warsh: A Representative of Discipline and Credibility (Approximately 28%)
Coming in second is former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, with current betting odds of about 28%.
Warsh has long been known for his clear stance and strong style, emphasizing the central bank's credibility and long-term discipline on the issue of inflation. He has repeatedly publicly expressed concerns about overly accommodative policies and is regarded as an important representative of the traditional hawkish school.
If Warsh ultimately prevails, markets generally expect the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, tolerance for asset prices, and policy communication. Such a style typically helps in curbing inflation expectations, but it also means that risk assets will need to adapt to a tighter financial environment.
Christopher Waller: A Fed Governor from the Academic Faction (Approximately 20%)
Current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has a probability of about 20%, ranking third.
Waller has a strong academic background and a clear policy rationale, and has long been regarded as one of the most influential "hawks" within the Federal Reserve (advocating high interest rates to curb inflation). However, in this FOMC meeting, he cast a dissenting vote in favor of continuing rate cuts, indicating that he believes inflation is no longer the primary threat—or that he may be feeling significant political or economic pressure.
If Waller were to take over, the Federal Reserve might place more emphasis on employment and growth objectives, adopt a relatively flexible policy pace, but whether he can maintain the central bank's independence in a highly politicized environment remains a key focus for the market.
Will Bitcoin continue to trend downward?
As macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies, on-chain data is beginning to show concerning signals.
CryptoQuant's latest analysis shows that,Bitcoin "Percentage of Supply in Loss"The 365-day moving average of (Supply in Loss) is turning upward again. This indicator measures the percentage of Bitcoin whose current price is below its most recent on-chain transfer price, and it serves as an important tool for observing changes in market structure.
When Bitcoin surged to its historical high of $126,000 in October last year, this indicator dropped to the lowest level of the cycle, reflecting that the market was in a highly profitable state. However, as the price retreated, the "Supply in Loss" metric began to rise steadily, indicating that losses were gradually spreading from short-term traders to longer-term holders.
Historically, such directional changes often appear in the early stages of market transitions between bull and bear phases. However, it is important to note that this indicator has not yet reached a typical "capitulation zone," and it is more of a warning signal rather than a confirmation of a trend.
This means that Bitcoin's current state is closer toHigh-level digestion and structural reorganizationRather than having already entered a clear bear market downtrend. Whether it will evolve into a deeper correction still heavily depends on macro-level liquidity and subsequent fund flows. Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks, said: "Short-term bullish catalysts for Bitcoin still exist, but they are increasingly leaning toward political factors rather than monetary factors."
Summary: Macroeconomic uncertainty persists, structural changes emerge, and the market is awaiting clarity.
Overall, this round of market changes is not driven by a single event, but rather the result of multiple factors acting together. Amidst uncertainty, capital is turning to gold, pushing risk-aversion sentiment to the forefront. As for the next move of Bitcoin, it will still require waiting for further convergence of macroeconomic and cyclical signals.