CoinText reports — In early Asian trading on June 18 Beijing time, spot gold traded around $4,280 per ounce, falling nearly 2% on Wednesday despite the Federal Reserve keeping its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, as the committee signaled a hawkish stance.
CoinTelegraph APP reports — During early Asian trading on Thursday (June 18, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $4,280 per ounce. Gold fell nearly 2% on Wednesday, despite the Fed maintaining its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The committee signaled a hawkish stance, and the Fed’s policy statement removed previous language suggesting potential rate cuts this year, completely eliminating any forward guidance on future rate actions. U.S. crude oil traded near $75 per barrel; U.S. crude had briefly approached $74 per barrel on Wednesday. Trump confirmed the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding; the U.S. released the official text of the memorandum with Iran, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that Friday’s talks in Switzerland have been temporarily postponed, describing Iran as a “wounded lion” superpower.
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Index falling 0.98% to 51,492.55, the S&P 500 Index dropping 1.21% to 7,420.10, and the Nasdaq Index sliding 1.34% to 26,021.66, ending its streak of consecutive record closes, primarily due to the Federal Reserve signaling a strong hawkish stance while holding interest rates steady.
New Chair Walsh emphasized the necessity of curbing inflation; the latest quarterly projections show that nine officials expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. The policy statement removed language suggesting potential rate cuts, and Walsh did not submit his personal rate forecast, causing market expectations for rate hikes to surge sharply. Short-term interest rate futures pricing indicates that the probability of a September hike now exceeds that of holding rates steady, with the likelihood of no action by year-end plummeting from 40% on Tuesday to approximately 13%.
All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 closed lower, with the communication services sector posting the largest decline of approximately 3%, while the industrial sector showed relative resilience, falling just 0.1%. Regional bank stocks, sensitive to interest rates, underperformed the broader market, with the KBW Regional Banking Index closing down 1.8%. The homebuilders ETF declined 2.3%. The CBOE Volatility Index rose 2 points to 18.44, marking its largest gain in four days.
Recent economic data showed that May retail sales grew stronger than expected, but earlier gains in oil prices and stock markets, driven by preliminary peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, were reversed after Trump stated that the agreement was not final and that war could resume.
Individually, SpaceX fell 4.9% after its debut listing, CME Group dropped 3.5% due to the CEO’s upcoming departure, while Allbirds surged 39% following its rebranding and the appointment of a former Amazon executive as CEO. Market volume reached 23.66 billion shares, above the average over the past 20 trading days.
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday, with spot gold closing at $4,257.60 per ounce, primarily due to the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, its latest quarterly projections showed that nine of the 19 policymakers believe interest rates may need to be raised later this year, and the policy statement removed previous language suggesting potential rate cuts. New Fed Chair Walsh, in his first post-meeting press conference, announced the formation of five working groups to review key policy areas and emphasized the necessity of curbing inflation.
Independent metal trader Tai Wong described Wash as "sharp, decisive, and energetic," noting that his statement that "interest rates are only tightening in the housing sector" was even more hawkish than his predecessor Powell's, causing market expectations for a December rate hike to rise from 61% before the decision to 78%; following the announcement, the dollar continued its upward trend, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns, further pressuring gold prices.
Other precious metals also declined across the board, with silver falling nearly 3% to $67.91, platinum dropping 2% to $1,768.03, and palladium sliding 3% to $1,309.25.
Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Wednesday, with Brent crude closing up 0.75% at $79.55 per barrel, and U.S. crude rising 0.97% to $76.79 per barrel, primarily due to U.S. President Trump stating that the latest ceasefire memorandum of understanding with Iran is not final, and that he may resume airstrikes if he is unsatisfied or if Iran does not "behave," providing momentum to the oil price rebound following last Sunday's announcement by the U.S. and Iran of an agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
City Index and FOREX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada noted that lingering uncertainty on the U.S. side makes a rebound in oil prices from their previous sharp decline logical.
On the supply side, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that crude oil inventories have declined for ten consecutive weeks, falling to the lowest level since 1985. The war in Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets, but concerns over oversupply are emerging. The International Energy Agency, in its first forecast for 2027, predicts a significant oil supply surplus, with global supply expected to surge by 8 million barrels per day while demand grows by only 2 million barrels per day. The agency also noted that a short-term U.S.-Iran agreement could create opportunities to replenish depleted inventories or establish new strategic reserves. However, industry officials point out that fully restoring pre-war production and refining levels may take weeks, months, or even years.
The US Dollar Index rose 0.82% on Wednesday, reaching a high of 100.57, its highest level in nearly a week, primarily as the Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the latest quarterly projections showed that nine of the 19 policymakers expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. The updated policy statement removed previous language suggesting possible rate cuts this year and eliminated all forward guidance on future rate actions—reflecting the new chair, Walsh’s swift imprint: significantly revising the official statement format and removing background details typically closely analyzed by markets.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectation for the end of 2026 from 2.7% to 3.6%. Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay, noted that the committee’s stance has sharply shifted toward a hawkish position, with policymakers believing that the U.S.-Iran agreement will not significantly alleviate price pressures and expecting at least one rate hike this year—marking a stark contrast to prior expectations of rate cuts. Markets reacted with rising yields as interest rate expectations increased. The U.S. dollar strengthened against all major currencies; EUR/USD fell 0.93% to 1.1499, and GBP/USD dropped 1.01% to 1.3291. Markets are focused on the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday, where policy is expected to remain unchanged, but attention centers on the tone of policymakers’ remarks. UK inflation in May unexpectedly held steady at 2.8%, matching its lowest level in 13 months, with markets now pricing in one rate hike before year-end.
The Japanese yen traded at 160.63 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.11%. Traders are closely monitoring whether Japanese authorities will intervene to support the weak yen, as the Bank of Japan raised rates on Tuesday to the highest level in 31 years and signaled further tightening without disclosing the timing of the next hike.
After Sweden's central bank held interest rates steady, the Swedish krona fell 0.8% against the US dollar to 9.5028 kronor per dollar. The bank stated that the escalation of the Middle East conflict has increased inflationary pressures and raised the likelihood of rate hikes, but noted that core inflation remains low and economic activity is slightly weaker.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Friday's talks in Switzerland temporarily postponed, calling Iran a superpower "like a wounded lion"
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that, following the signing of the memorandum of understanding, the previously scheduled Iran-U.S. talks in Switzerland on Friday, June 19, have been “no longer certain,” with both sides deciding to temporarily postpone the meeting. In his remarks, Baghaei noted that Iran had defeated two nuclear powers backed by multiple nations, emphasizing that Iran is “truly a superpower,” not merely empty rhetoric. He also said that enemies had inflicted deep wounds on Iran, claiming countless lives and leaving the country devastated. Yet he stressed: “A wounded lion is still a lion.” This statement is seen as Iran’s effort to project a tough external image while reaffirming its influence and strategic standing in the region.
The United States releases the official text of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran
According to CNN on the 17th, a senior U.S. government official read the official text of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran to the media. The document contains 14 provisions, detailing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of certain financial restrictions on Iran, as well as outlining the anticipated objectives for resolving Iran’s nuclear issue in future technical talks. The document is titled the “Memorandum of Understanding Between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.” The official stated that this agreement would immediately open the Strait of Hormuz and prompt Iran to dismantle its nuclear materials. It also establishes a dynamic adjustment mechanism: should Iran demonstrate further goodwill, the United States will correspondingly increase economic and sanctions relief. According to the document, the United States and Iran will immediately and permanently cease all military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, commit to never launching war or military action against each other in the future, and ultimately confirm the permanent end of all wars on all fronts, including Lebanon; the United States and Iran commit to negotiating and reaching a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days; after signing the memorandum of understanding, the United States will immediately begin lifting its maritime blockade on Iran, fully lift it within 30 days, and pledge to withdraw its military forces from Iran’s surrounding regions within 30 days after the final agreement is reached; the United States commits to cooperating with regional partners to invest at least $300 billion in Iran’s reconstruction and economic development, with the implementation mechanism to be finalized within 60 days as part of the final agreement; the United States commits to terminating all sanctions against Iran and opening access to Iran’s frozen or restricted funds and assets following implementation of the memorandum of understanding; Iran will ensure that commercial vessels can transit freely and safely between the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman within a 60-day period after signing the memorandum of understanding, and will conduct mine-clearing operations within 30 days; Iran reaffirms that it will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons, and both sides agree to dilute Iran’s enriched uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, among other measures. Previously, according to senior U.S. government officials on the 15th, the United States and Iran had signed the memorandum of understanding electronically, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for the 19th in Switzerland. However, U.S. President Trump said on the 17th at a press conference in France that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding may be signed on the 18th or 19th. The Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency also published the full text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on the evening of the 17th local time. (Xinhua)
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year has risen to 83.1%
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by October is 44.1%, the probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike is 44.3%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 11.6%. The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by December is 15.5%, the probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike is 83.1% (up from 59.4% the previous day), and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 1.4%.
Spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The U.S. must end the maritime blockade within 30 days
According to Iranian sources on June 17, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that if Israel continues to occupy Lebanon, it will be considered a violation of the memorandum of understanding, and Iran will take necessary measures. Baghaei said that Iran and the United States have agreed to initiate negotiations on a final agreement within the next 60 days. The United States must end its maritime blockade within 30 days. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, it has been agreed that maritime traffic will be restored to normal within a specified timeframe. This is Iran’s own responsibility and will be fully implemented by Iran without any involvement or interference from other parties. In establishing the management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will cooperate with Oman and consult with other countries in the region as needed. (CCTV News)
Key Takeaways from the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
1. The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%–3.75%. 2. The “dot plot,” reflecting interest rate projections, showed diverging views among officials on whether to raise rates before the end of 2026: nine of 18 officials forecasted rate hikes, with the median rate projection rising from 3.4% in March to 3.75%; the median projection also indicated rates would fall to 3.6% by 2027. 3. One Federal Reserve official did not submit any rate projections; another did not provide a 2028 rate forecast. 4. The median projection by Fed officials showed core inflation at 3.3% by the end of 2026, higher than the March forecast of 2.7%; GDP growth is projected at 2.2%, below the previous forecast of 2.4%. 5. The Fed streamlined its policy statement, removing language about potential further rate adjustments, and declared that “the Committee will achieve price stability.” 6. The Fed stated, “Despite heightened uncertainty from factors such as conflicts in the Middle East, economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace,” and noted that “productivity growth and capital investment have been strong.” 7. The Fed said employment growth “has kept pace with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has changed little”; inflation remains elevated, “partly reflecting supply shocks that have pushed up prices in sectors such as energy.”
Fed dot plot: Nine officials expect interest rate hikes to be warranted in 2026
The Fed's dot plot shows that among 19 officials, only 18 submitted dot plot projections. Of these 18 officials, one projected a cumulative rate hike of 75 basis points for the remainder of 2026, five projected a cumulative hike of 50 basis points, three projected a cumulative hike of 25 basis points, eight projected no change in rates, and one projected a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points.
Report: The United States and Iran are negotiating to sign the relevant agreement ahead of schedule
According to Axios, citing a mediating foreign diplomat and another source, the United States, Iran, and other mediating parties are negotiating to sign the memorandum of understanding as early as Wednesday, instead of the originally scheduled Friday. If the signing is moved up, the memorandum will be signed electronically; the provisions concerning the Strait of Hormuz will take effect immediately, and the United States may ultimately release the full text of the agreement. The diplomat stated that the core objective of accelerating the process and advancing the signing is to open the Strait of Hormuz sooner than the originally planned Friday, with both the U.S. and Iran aligned on this goal. Another driving factor may be domestic political pressure on the White House to disclose the text of the memorandum. However, the source indicated that it was Iran that demanded the full text not be disclosed prior to formal signing and denied that the White House’s actions were motivated by domestic political pressure.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: The 60-day deadline begins today, warning Israel that an attack on Lebanon would constitute a breach
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, confirmed that, according to the text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the 60-day transition period officially began on June 18. The spokesperson warned that if the Israeli regime continues its attacks on Lebanon, such actions will be considered a violation of its commitments under the memorandum. Although there are clear differences in the methods employed by the United States and Israel, Iran will not treat them as separate entities. Baghaei noted that the Israeli regime is unwilling to create space for any diplomatic process to advance, but the United States bears the responsibility of compelling Israel to honor the commitments it has made to Iran under this agreement.
The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has been electronically signed, and a formal ceremony will be held in Switzerland on Friday.
On the early morning of June 18 local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei announced that the text of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States has been formally finalized, and both sides have completed the signing remotely via electronic means. White House officials later confirmed that President Trump has signed the document. Baghaei emphasized that the U.S.-Iran meeting scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland “is not intended for signing the memorandum of understanding”—the signing process has already been completed in advance, and Iran’s negotiation team will proceed to Switzerland as planned. According to Axios, the U.S.-Iran delegation meetings, led respectively by U.S. Vice President Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf, are still expected to take place as scheduled on Friday in Switzerland. Previously, a senior U.S. official disclosed during a press briefing that Trump and Vance had signed the memorandum of understanding, while Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Kalibaf signed on behalf of Iran. Vance will subsequently lead the U.S. side into the next phase of negotiations. According to previous statements by U.S. officials, the memorandum of understanding was originally planned to be publicly released within 24 to 48 hours after signing, but Trump later indicated that the document would be announced following an official signing ceremony. The core content of this memorandum of understanding covers three key points: ensuring the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, guaranteeing that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons, and indicating that if Iran is willing to change its behavior, the United States is prepared to fundamentally transform bilateral relations. Vance revealed that the memorandum is approximately one and a half pages long, containing broad provisions, with many details to be gradually finalized during subsequent 60-day technical negotiations. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister previously stated that after the signing of the memorandum on June 19, Iran will initiate follow-up negotiations based on the U.S. side’s fulfillment of its commitments. Vance also emphasized that the U.S. approach toward Iran is grounded in verifiable actions and outcomes, not trust. If Tehran fails to honor its commitments, the United States will reassess all options, including reinstating economic sanctions, reimposing blockades, or even launching military strikes again.
Multiple domestic high-speed optical communication chips have entered mass production, with domestic fiber optic capacity booked through 2027
This year, the AI computing power wave has swept across the globe. If AI large models are likened to the most powerful brains, then optical communication serves as the "high-speed vessels" delivering massive amounts of data to them. Over the past year, multiple high-speed optical communication chips designed for supercomputing centers have completed process validation and are gradually entering mass production and delivery phases, continuously filling the gap in domestic supply of high-end optical chips. As the core medium for information transmission, optical fiber is a critical infrastructure connecting computing power with data. This year, sales of optical fiber products from a company in Wujiang, Suzhou, have grown by more than 35% year-over-year. The rapidly increasing demand from data centers for new types of optical fiber products has left the company’s offerings consistently in short supply. “Our monthly orders are nearly full,” said the company. “We are carefully selecting major clients and planning our future production capacity—our current capacity is already scheduled through the first quarter of 2027.” (CCTV Finance)
Focus today
Stock market
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Index falling 0.98% to 51,492.55, the S&P 500 Index dropping 1.21% to 7,420.10, and the Nasdaq Index sliding 1.34% to 26,021.66, ending its streak of consecutive record closes, primarily due to the Federal Reserve signaling a strong hawkish stance while holding interest rates steady.
New Chair Walsh emphasized the necessity of curbing inflation; the latest quarterly projections show that nine officials expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. The policy statement removed language suggesting potential rate cuts, and Walsh did not submit his personal rate forecast, causing market expectations for rate hikes to surge sharply. Short-term interest rate futures pricing indicates that the probability of a September hike now exceeds that of holding rates steady, with the likelihood of no action by year-end plummeting from 40% on Tuesday to approximately 13%.
All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 closed lower, with the communication services sector posting the largest decline of approximately 3%, while the industrial sector showed relative resilience, falling just 0.1%. Regional bank stocks, sensitive to interest rates, underperformed the broader market, with the KBW Regional Banking Index closing down 1.8%. The homebuilders ETF declined 2.3%. The CBOE Volatility Index rose 2 points to 18.44, marking its largest gain in four days.
Recent economic data showed that May retail sales grew stronger than expected, but earlier gains in oil prices and stock markets, driven by preliminary peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, were reversed after Trump stated that the agreement was not final and that war could resume.
Individually, SpaceX fell 4.9% after its debut listing, CME Group dropped 3.5% due to the CEO’s upcoming departure, while Allbirds surged 39% following its rebranding and the appointment of a former Amazon executive as CEO. Market volume reached 23.66 billion shares, above the average over the past 20 trading days.
Gold market
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday, with spot gold closing at $4,257.60 per ounce, primarily due to the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, its latest quarterly projections showed that nine of the 19 policymakers believe interest rates may need to be raised later this year, and the policy statement removed previous language suggesting potential rate cuts. New Fed Chair Walsh, in his first post-meeting press conference, announced the formation of five working groups to review key policy areas and emphasized the necessity of curbing inflation.
Independent metal trader Tai Wong described Wash as "sharp, decisive, and energetic," noting that his statement that "interest rates are only tightening in the housing sector" was even more hawkish than his predecessor Powell's, causing market expectations for a December rate hike to rise from 61% before the decision to 78%; following the announcement, the dollar continued its upward trend, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns, further pressuring gold prices.
Other precious metals also declined across the board, with silver falling nearly 3% to $67.91, platinum dropping 2% to $1,768.03, and palladium sliding 3% to $1,309.25.
Oil market
Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Wednesday, with Brent crude closing up 0.75% at $79.55 per barrel, and U.S. crude rising 0.97% to $76.79 per barrel, primarily due to U.S. President Trump stating that the latest ceasefire memorandum of understanding with Iran is not final, and that he may resume airstrikes if he is unsatisfied or if Iran does not "behave," providing momentum to the oil price rebound following last Sunday's announcement by the U.S. and Iran of an agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
City Index and FOREX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada noted that lingering uncertainty on the U.S. side makes a rebound in oil prices from their previous sharp decline logical.
On the supply side, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that crude oil inventories have declined for ten consecutive weeks, falling to the lowest level since 1985. The war in Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets, but concerns over oversupply are emerging. The International Energy Agency, in its first forecast for 2027, predicts a significant oil supply surplus, with global supply expected to surge by 8 million barrels per day while demand grows by only 2 million barrels per day. The agency also noted that a short-term U.S.-Iran agreement could create opportunities to replenish depleted inventories or establish new strategic reserves. However, industry officials point out that fully restoring pre-war production and refining levels may take weeks, months, or even years.
Forex
The US Dollar Index rose 0.82% on Wednesday, reaching a high of 100.57, its highest level in nearly a week, primarily as the Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the latest quarterly projections showed that nine of the 19 policymakers expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. The updated policy statement removed previous language suggesting possible rate cuts this year and eliminated all forward guidance on future rate actions—reflecting the new chair, Walsh’s swift imprint: significantly revising the official statement format and removing background details typically closely analyzed by markets.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectation for the end of 2026 from 2.7% to 3.6%. Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay, noted that the committee’s stance has sharply shifted toward a hawkish position, with policymakers believing that the U.S.-Iran agreement will not significantly alleviate price pressures and expecting at least one rate hike this year—marking a stark contrast to prior expectations of rate cuts. Markets reacted with rising yields as interest rate expectations increased. The U.S. dollar strengthened against all major currencies; EUR/USD fell 0.93% to 1.1499, and GBP/USD dropped 1.01% to 1.3291. Markets are focused on the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday, where policy is expected to remain unchanged, but attention centers on the tone of policymakers’ remarks. UK inflation in May unexpectedly held steady at 2.8%, matching its lowest level in 13 months, with markets now pricing in one rate hike before year-end.
The Japanese yen traded at 160.63 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.11%. Traders are closely monitoring whether Japanese authorities will intervene to support the weak yen, as the Bank of Japan raised rates on Tuesday to the highest level in 31 years and signaled further tightening without disclosing the timing of the next hike.
After Sweden's central bank held interest rates steady, the Swedish krona fell 0.8% against the US dollar to 9.5028 kronor per dollar. The bank stated that the escalation of the Middle East conflict has increased inflationary pressures and raised the likelihood of rate hikes, but noted that core inflation remains low and economic activity is slightly weaker.
International News
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Friday's talks in Switzerland temporarily postponed, calling Iran a superpower "like a wounded lion"
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that, following the signing of the memorandum of understanding, the previously scheduled Iran-U.S. talks in Switzerland on Friday, June 19, have been “no longer certain,” with both sides deciding to temporarily postpone the meeting. In his remarks, Baghaei noted that Iran had defeated two nuclear powers backed by multiple nations, emphasizing that Iran is “truly a superpower,” not merely empty rhetoric. He also said that enemies had inflicted deep wounds on Iran, claiming countless lives and leaving the country devastated. Yet he stressed: “A wounded lion is still a lion.” This statement is seen as Iran’s effort to project a tough external image while reaffirming its influence and strategic standing in the region.
The United States releases the official text of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran
According to CNN on the 17th, a senior U.S. government official read the official text of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran to the media. The document contains 14 provisions, detailing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of certain financial restrictions on Iran, as well as outlining the anticipated objectives for resolving Iran’s nuclear issue in future technical talks. The document is titled the “Memorandum of Understanding Between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.” The official stated that this agreement would immediately open the Strait of Hormuz and prompt Iran to dismantle its nuclear materials. It also establishes a dynamic adjustment mechanism: should Iran demonstrate further goodwill, the United States will correspondingly increase economic and sanctions relief. According to the document, the United States and Iran will immediately and permanently cease all military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, commit to never launching war or military action against each other in the future, and ultimately confirm the permanent end of all wars on all fronts, including Lebanon; the United States and Iran commit to negotiating and reaching a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days; after signing the memorandum of understanding, the United States will immediately begin lifting its maritime blockade on Iran, fully lift it within 30 days, and pledge to withdraw its military forces from Iran’s surrounding regions within 30 days after the final agreement is reached; the United States commits to cooperating with regional partners to invest at least $300 billion in Iran’s reconstruction and economic development, with the implementation mechanism to be finalized within 60 days as part of the final agreement; the United States commits to terminating all sanctions against Iran and opening access to Iran’s frozen or restricted funds and assets following implementation of the memorandum of understanding; Iran will ensure that commercial vessels can transit freely and safely between the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman within a 60-day period after signing the memorandum of understanding, and will conduct mine-clearing operations within 30 days; Iran reaffirms that it will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons, and both sides agree to dilute Iran’s enriched uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, among other measures. Previously, according to senior U.S. government officials on the 15th, the United States and Iran had signed the memorandum of understanding electronically, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for the 19th in Switzerland. However, U.S. President Trump said on the 17th at a press conference in France that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding may be signed on the 18th or 19th. The Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency also published the full text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on the evening of the 17th local time. (Xinhua)
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year has risen to 83.1%
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by October is 44.1%, the probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike is 44.3%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 11.6%. The probability that the Fed will hold rates steady by December is 15.5%, the probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike is 83.1% (up from 59.4% the previous day), and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 1.4%.
Spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The U.S. must end the maritime blockade within 30 days
According to Iranian sources on June 17, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that if Israel continues to occupy Lebanon, it will be considered a violation of the memorandum of understanding, and Iran will take necessary measures. Baghaei said that Iran and the United States have agreed to initiate negotiations on a final agreement within the next 60 days. The United States must end its maritime blockade within 30 days. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, it has been agreed that maritime traffic will be restored to normal within a specified timeframe. This is Iran’s own responsibility and will be fully implemented by Iran without any involvement or interference from other parties. In establishing the management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will cooperate with Oman and consult with other countries in the region as needed. (CCTV News)
Key Takeaways from the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
1. The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%–3.75%. 2. The “dot plot,” reflecting interest rate projections, showed diverging views among officials on whether to raise rates before the end of 2026: nine of 18 officials forecasted rate hikes, with the median rate projection rising from 3.4% in March to 3.75%; the median projection also indicated rates would fall to 3.6% by 2027. 3. One Federal Reserve official did not submit any rate projections; another did not provide a 2028 rate forecast. 4. The median projection by Fed officials showed core inflation at 3.3% by the end of 2026, higher than the March forecast of 2.7%; GDP growth is projected at 2.2%, below the previous forecast of 2.4%. 5. The Fed streamlined its policy statement, removing language about potential further rate adjustments, and declared that “the Committee will achieve price stability.” 6. The Fed stated, “Despite heightened uncertainty from factors such as conflicts in the Middle East, economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace,” and noted that “productivity growth and capital investment have been strong.” 7. The Fed said employment growth “has kept pace with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has changed little”; inflation remains elevated, “partly reflecting supply shocks that have pushed up prices in sectors such as energy.”
Fed dot plot: Nine officials expect interest rate hikes to be warranted in 2026
The Fed's dot plot shows that among 19 officials, only 18 submitted dot plot projections. Of these 18 officials, one projected a cumulative rate hike of 75 basis points for the remainder of 2026, five projected a cumulative hike of 50 basis points, three projected a cumulative hike of 25 basis points, eight projected no change in rates, and one projected a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points.
Report: The United States and Iran are negotiating to sign the relevant agreement ahead of schedule
According to Axios, citing a mediating foreign diplomat and another source, the United States, Iran, and other mediating parties are negotiating to sign the memorandum of understanding as early as Wednesday, instead of the originally scheduled Friday. If the signing is moved up, the memorandum will be signed electronically; the provisions concerning the Strait of Hormuz will take effect immediately, and the United States may ultimately release the full text of the agreement. The diplomat stated that the core objective of accelerating the process and advancing the signing is to open the Strait of Hormuz sooner than the originally planned Friday, with both the U.S. and Iran aligned on this goal. Another driving factor may be domestic political pressure on the White House to disclose the text of the memorandum. However, the source indicated that it was Iran that demanded the full text not be disclosed prior to formal signing and denied that the White House’s actions were motivated by domestic political pressure.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: The 60-day deadline begins today, warning Israel that an attack on Lebanon would constitute a breach
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, confirmed that, according to the text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the 60-day transition period officially began on June 18. The spokesperson warned that if the Israeli regime continues its attacks on Lebanon, such actions will be considered a violation of its commitments under the memorandum. Although there are clear differences in the methods employed by the United States and Israel, Iran will not treat them as separate entities. Baghaei noted that the Israeli regime is unwilling to create space for any diplomatic process to advance, but the United States bears the responsibility of compelling Israel to honor the commitments it has made to Iran under this agreement.
The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has been electronically signed, and a formal ceremony will be held in Switzerland on Friday.
On the early morning of June 18 local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei announced that the text of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States has been formally finalized, and both sides have completed the signing remotely via electronic means. White House officials later confirmed that President Trump has signed the document. Baghaei emphasized that the U.S.-Iran meeting scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland “is not intended for signing the memorandum of understanding”—the signing process has already been completed in advance, and Iran’s negotiation team will proceed to Switzerland as planned. According to Axios, the U.S.-Iran delegation meetings, led respectively by U.S. Vice President Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf, are still expected to take place as scheduled on Friday in Switzerland. Previously, a senior U.S. official disclosed during a press briefing that Trump and Vance had signed the memorandum of understanding, while Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Kalibaf signed on behalf of Iran. Vance will subsequently lead the U.S. side into the next phase of negotiations. According to previous statements by U.S. officials, the memorandum of understanding was originally planned to be publicly released within 24 to 48 hours after signing, but Trump later indicated that the document would be announced following an official signing ceremony. The core content of this memorandum of understanding covers three key points: ensuring the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, guaranteeing that Iran will never possess nuclear weapons, and indicating that if Iran is willing to change its behavior, the United States is prepared to fundamentally transform bilateral relations. Vance revealed that the memorandum is approximately one and a half pages long, containing broad provisions, with many details to be gradually finalized during subsequent 60-day technical negotiations. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister previously stated that after the signing of the memorandum on June 19, Iran will initiate follow-up negotiations based on the U.S. side’s fulfillment of its commitments. Vance also emphasized that the U.S. approach toward Iran is grounded in verifiable actions and outcomes, not trust. If Tehran fails to honor its commitments, the United States will reassess all options, including reinstating economic sanctions, reimposing blockades, or even launching military strikes again.
Domestic News
Multiple domestic high-speed optical communication chips have entered mass production, with domestic fiber optic capacity booked through 2027
This year, the AI computing power wave has swept across the globe. If AI large models are likened to the most powerful brains, then optical communication serves as the "high-speed vessels" delivering massive amounts of data to them. Over the past year, multiple high-speed optical communication chips designed for supercomputing centers have completed process validation and are gradually entering mass production and delivery phases, continuously filling the gap in domestic supply of high-end optical chips. As the core medium for information transmission, optical fiber is a critical infrastructure connecting computing power with data. This year, sales of optical fiber products from a company in Wujiang, Suzhou, have grown by more than 35% year-over-year. The rapidly increasing demand from data centers for new types of optical fiber products has left the company’s offerings consistently in short supply. “Our monthly orders are nearly full,” said the company. “We are carefully selecting major clients and planning our future production capacity—our current capacity is already scheduled through the first quarter of 2027.” (CCTV Finance)