Author: Shenchao TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
S&P has assigned SpaceX a "BBB" credit rating with a stable outlook.
On June 19, S&P assigned SpaceX (SPCX.O) a credit rating of BBB. S&P noted that SpaceX’s launch and connectivity businesses are performing solidly, but this is offset by significant capital requirements and uncertainty surrounding its artificial intelligence initiatives.
S&P noted: "This rating does not include SpaceX's long-term plans such as landing on the Moon, traveling to Mars, building data centers in space, or constructing a large chip factory in Texas, as most of these initiatives are not yet quantifiable and therefore fall outside the scope of our rating. However, we note that if these plans proceed, they may require long-term financing in the future." S&P also provided a stable outlook, expecting SpaceX's adjusted leverage ratio to remain below 2.0x despite its substantial investment plans.
The Federal Reserve announced for the fourth consecutive time this year that it would hold interest rates steady.
On June 18, according to CCTV News, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced on the 17th that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, unchanged. This decision, marking the fourth consecutive rate hold this year, aligned with broad market expectations.
The summary of economic projections released simultaneously by the Federal Reserve showed that the median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 rose from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, indicating that Fed officials expect rate hikes this year. The projections also revealed a significant increase in the median forecast for this year’s personal consumption expenditures price index growth, from 2.7% in March to 3.6%, and the median forecast for core inflation rose from 2.7% to 3.3%. The forecast for U.S. economic growth this year was lowered from 2.4% to 2.2%.
On the 17th, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first press conference since assuming the role of central bank chair, stated that policymakers are committed to “achieving price stability.” He acknowledged that inflation has remained well above the Fed’s 2% target and said, “Persistent high prices are a burden for the American people.”
Anthropic releases Project Fetch Phase 2: Claude Opus 4.7 achieves 10x faster performance on robotic tasks
On June 19, Anthropic released the results of Phase 2 of Project Fetch, evaluating the enhanced capabilities of its latest model in real-world robotic operations. Conducted in August 2025, the experiment involved non-robotics-expert Anthropic employees using off-the-shelf quadruped robots to complete a series of complex tasks, comparing performance between “assisted by Claude models” and “relying solely on humans and the internet.” Results showed that under full autonomy of the latest model, Claude Opus 4.7, the robot achieved an average speed significantly faster than the human team across all achievable tasks—at least ten times faster.
Anthropic stated that this advancement is not the result of specialized training for robots, but rather a consequence of expanded capabilities in general-purpose large models, noting that AI is entering an early stage of transitioning from "assisting humans in using tools" to "directly operating physical tools," similar to the earlier evolution in software engineering toward agent-based programming.
Kalshi's annual revenue has surpassed $2 billion, and it has initiated preliminary discussions with investment banks regarding an IPO.
On June 19, according to The Information, the prediction market platform Kalshi has achieved annualized revenue exceeding $2 billion and has initiated early, informal discussions with multiple investment banks regarding an initial public offering (IPO).
Franklin Templeton applies to launch an ETF that reinvests stock dividends into Bitcoin.
On June 19, Franklin Templeton submitted applications to the U.S. SEC for multiple ETFs whose underlying assets will reinvest stock dividends into Bitcoin: the Franklin US Equity Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF and the Franklin US Innovation Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF, with an expected effective date as early as September 1, 2026.
These two ETFs will track the VettaFi US Large-Cap 500 Bitcoin DRIP Index and related innovative indices, with an initial allocation of 95% U.S. large-cap stocks and 5% Bitcoin. During quarterly rebalancing, if the Bitcoin allocation exceeds 5%, it will be adjusted to 4.5%, with a maximum Bitcoin exposure of no more than 20%. Bitcoin exposure will be achieved through spot Bitcoin ETPs, futures, options, and other instruments.
Musk: It would be remarkable if Chinese AI reaches Fable level by Q1 next year, measured by real-world practicality.
On June 19, after Elon Musk previously suggested that China’s AI might reach Fable level in Q1, Zhipu AI founder Tang Jie responded that it wouldn’t take that long. Musk then remarked that while benchmarks support this view, even achieving it in Q1 would be highly impressive if measured by real-world utility. He also noted that Anthropic is correctly focused on maximizing useful intelligence, which may not show up in benchmarks but will clearly reflect in revenue.
Previously, Musk: China's AI may reach Fable level in Q1 next year.
Fidelity launches a stablecoin reserve management fund
On June 18, according to CoinDesk, Fidelity Investments launched the Fidelity Reserves Digital Fund on Thursday, a money market fund designed for stablecoin issuers and institutional investors to manage reserve assets compliant with the GENIUS Act. The act requires issuers of payment stablecoins to hold reserves in cash, short-term U.S. Treasuries, and eligible government money market funds.
The fund will invest in highly liquid instruments such as U.S. Treasury bills with maturities of 93 days or less, cash, and overnight repurchase agreements. The current stablecoin market size is approximately $32 billion; according to industry forecasts cited by State Street, this sector could expand to between $1.9 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030 due to increased institutional adoption. State Street has previously launched similar products, as traditional asset managers accelerate their competition in this potential trillion-dollar market.
CME Group plans to sue the U.S. CFTC, challenging the legality of its approval of perpetual futures.
On June 18, Terrence Duffy, the outgoing CEO of CME Group, said the company will sue the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Thursday over its approval of Kalshi’s launch of a Bitcoin perpetual futures product.
Duffy stated that perpetual futures should essentially be classified as swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act framework, rather than standard futures contracts, which will form the core basis of CME's lawsuit. He also noted that CME holds exclusive authorization from the relevant benchmark providers, meaning that any such products, whether perpetual or not, should be authorized by CME.
Previously, Kalshi expanded its related products to other cryptocurrencies after approval. The CFTC has not yet responded to this.
The Hong Kong Exchange and the Monetary Authority have launched a pilot project to provide a digital payment solution for the after-hours trading session of derivatives.
On June 18, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announced a joint pilot project to explore a new digital payment solution for the post-market trading session in the derivatives market. The pilot aims to enhance Hong Kong’s capital markets and meet the growing demand for post-market trading. HKEX and HKMA are investigating the use of a “digital Hong Kong dollar”—a wholesale central bank digital currency (CBDC) operating on a 24/7 basis—to settle pre-funded margins during post-market trading sessions, thereby strengthening risk management capabilities in the derivatives market outside banking hours while maintaining existing operational processes.
Tether will gradually phase out aUSDT and focus on core products such as XAUT in the future.
On June 18, according to official announcements, Tether declared that, following an evaluation of user activity, market demand, and the company’s overall strategic priorities, it will phase out support for the Alloy by Tether platform and aUSD₮. Effective immediately, the platform will disable the creation of new positions and the minting of new aUSD₮. Existing users may still redeem their aUSD₮ and withdraw the gold-backed stablecoin XAU₮ over the next three months.
Starting September 17, 2026, users who have not completed their redemption will no longer be able to withdraw XAU₮ through the platform. Tether stated that it will subsequently focus its resources on XAU₮ and other core products within its ecosystem.
Market Trends
Recommended Reading
STRC has dropped to a new all-time low; Saylor's perpetual motion machine has stalled.
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32128
STRC has fallen to a new all-time low, revealing not only the failure of Michael Saylor’s high-yield preferred stock financing tool, but also the fragility of the Bitcoin treasury company model during a bear market—when Bitcoin prices decline, preferred shares trade at a discount, and fundraising channels shut down, the positive feedback loop that relied on financing to buy more Bitcoin begins to reverse, forcing the company to sell Bitcoin just to pay dividends. What truly concerns the market is not whether Strategy will collapse, but whether the belief underpinning this “perpetual Bitcoin-buying machine” is beginning to crack.
Reform the Fed—Wash can't wait any longer.
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32122
The focus of the first Fed meeting under Waish’s leadership was not on maintaining interest rates, but on formally launching a comprehensive overhaul of the Fed’s policy framework, communication mechanisms, and inflation model—he simultaneously weakened forward guidance with the shortest statement ever, while entrusting key issues such as the inflation framework, dot plot, and data systems to five working groups for review. This means that over the coming months, the greatest risk for markets will no longer be whether the Fed will raise or cut rates, but that the Fed’s own rules are being rewritten, potentially leading to policy uncertainty significantly higher than in recent years.
Intel CEO Patrick Gelsinger's first podcast interview: Our goal is "10x in 5–10 years," betting on advanced packaging, glass substrates, and synthetic diamonds.
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32130
While everyone is focused on AI chips and GPUs, Intel CEO Patrick Gelsinger is betting on a different path. In his first in-depth podcast interview since taking office, he outlined a goal of achieving 10x growth over the next 5–10 years, shifting Intel’s focus from merely chasing advanced process nodes to emerging materials such as advanced packaging, glass substrates, gallium nitride, silicon carbide, and even synthetic diamonds. He also discussed how Agent AI is driving renewed demand for CPUs, collaboration with Elon Musk on building Terafab, and Intel’s long-term strategy for its foundry business. As Moore’s Law approaches its physical limits, this interview not only reveals Intel’s roadmap for revival but also illuminates the next phase of competition in AI infrastructure.
Ethereum Q1 2026 Review: On-chain Activity Reaches New Highs, Tokenized Assets Lead the Industry
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32125
The most critical paradox this quarter: On-chain usage of Ethereum’s Layer 1 mainnet reached an all-time high, while network transaction fees simultaneously declined. Ethereum is proactively driving network scaling, willingly sacrificing short-term fee revenue—the long-term logic is that cheaper block space will unlock massive latent market demand, ultimately driving sustained growth in total network revenue.
Annualized returns of 15%-25%—Is the BlackRock Bitcoin Yield ETF an opportunity or a trap?
https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32124
BlackRock is turning Bitcoin into a "yield-generating asset." Its newly launched Bitcoin Income ETF, BITA, offers investors an annualized yield of up to 15%-25% by selling covered call options—but at the cost of capping some upside potential. As institutions begin to move beyond merely holding Bitcoin and instead seek to extract cash flow from it, a new question emerges: Is this an innovative product drawing more traditional capital into the market, or merely a financial engineering illusion of yield? In this episode, we break down how BlackRock’s BITA works and its potential far-reaching implications for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.