According to a ChainCatcher report citing Jin10, the CME "FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 26.8%, with a 72.5% chance of maintaining current rates and a 0.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.
FED Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged in January at 97.2% Probability
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Summary
According to ChainCatcher, the CME "Fed Watch" tool indicates a 97.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026. A 25-basis-point rate cut has a 2.8% chance. By March, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut rises to 26.8%, while pressures from MiCA compliance continue to influence global cryptocurrency markets. The probability of no rate change remains at 72.5%, with a 0.7% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. CFT regulations are also gaining momentum, adding additional layers of oversight to financial markets.
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