ChainThink reports that on July 5, it was announced that next week the global markets will see the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, the European Central Bank’s meeting minutes, and several key economic data releases. The market will closely focus on inflation trends, interest rate projections, and short-term gold price movements.
Among these, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be released at凌晨 Beijing time on Thursday, with market participants closely watching for further details on Chair Walsh's first meeting to assess whether there is still room for a rate hike before year-end.
The interest rate market has largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike in December and sees a possibility of an earlier move in October. Officials including Williams, Logan, and Waller are also set to deliver speeches in succession.
The European Central Bank’s meeting minutes will also be released on Thursday, with markets focusing on its latest assessment of economic growth, inflation, and future monetary policy. Regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision, markets anticipate an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point hike.
In addition, data such as the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI final reading, EIA crude oil inventories, and initial jobless claims will be released sequentially.
HSBC believes that, against the backdrop of persistently high real interest rates and a relatively strong dollar, gold may remain range-bound in the short term; however, central bank buying, ETF inflows, and the global trend toward de-dollarization continue to support its medium- to long-term upward trajectory.