Ethereum has been in a downtrend since May 11, and has maintained a weak short-term structure. The price has fallen from $2,375 to $2,031 on May 23, a decline of nearly 14.5%
The most important point is not the absence of buyers, but that the market is falling despite showing aggressive buying. Spot volume contracted from 470,770.6 ETH to 256,963.81 ETH, a 45.4% decline in 12 days. In dollar terms, it fell from around $1.10B to $521.4M, a contraction of 52.65%
In derivatives, Open Interest is moving sideways: from $15.43B to $15.54B, barely +0.69%. Futures are not validating a strong bullish expansion. In addition, Futures CVD shows a predominance of long positioning, but the price continues to fall
The most relevant signal appears in Spot Taker CVD: it remains Taker Buy Dominant, but the associated price falls from $2.3397K on May 11 to $2.0658K on May 22. There are aggressive buyers in spot, but they are not managing to sustain the price
Funding Rates also remained positive since May 11. Longs continue paying to maintain exposure while ETH falls
Even the cumulative Exchange Netflow was negative, near -80,507 ETH. There was a net outflow from exchanges, yet ETH failed to recover
Conclusion
ETH is falling because, in terms of effective market pressure, there is more selling supply than demand capable of sustaining the price. Aggressive buying exists in both spot and futures but, it is being absorbed by limit sell orders / available supply placed in the market. That is why the price continues to fall even with Spot Taker CVD buy-dominant, Futures CVD showing buying pressure, positive Funding, and net exchange outflows
Until ETH recovers spot volume, breaks resistance, and confirms a healthy expansion in derivatives, bearish pressure is very likely to remain dominant. In the short term, the price appears to be heading toward the $1,984 support, and if it breaks, the next stop could be the $1,937 support
By Carmelo Alemán
On-Chain Analyst CryptoQuant Verified
