Ethena Price Fails to Break $0.1196, 20% Drop Risk Looms

Key Insights:

• Ethena price bounced 7% to $0.115 but failed to break $0.1196, invalidating the bearish pattern.
• Whales dumped 180 million ENA tokens from Feb. 20 to March 3, dropping holdings to 9.3 billion.
• Ethena price faces a 20% correction to $0.066 if the neckline at $0.08 breaks as the pattern completes.

Ethena price went up 7% over the last 24 hours. Sounds good at first. The token reached $0.115 on March 3, 2026. Traders got a bit excited. But there’s a problem. Ethena crypto rally stopped at a key level. It couldn’t break through $0.1196. That number matters a lot for the chart pattern.

When the price can’t break important levels, it shows weakness. The head and shoulders pattern is still active on Ethena price charts. This pattern usually means more drops are coming. A 20% fall could happen if certain support levels are broken. That would take Ethena’s price down to $0.066.

The 7% bounce looked promising. Volume increased to $150 million in 24 hours. That’s real buying interest, but Ethena price hit a wall at $0.1196. It tried to break through. It failed, then it came back down.

Why does $0.1196 matter? Because breaking above that level would invalidate the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The pattern shows a head in the middle with two shoulders on each side.

Right now, the Ethena price is forming the right shoulder. To cancel this pattern completely, the price needs to go above $0.131. That’s where the head peaks. The bounce couldn’t even get to $0.1196. That’s way below $0.131. So, the pattern is still very much alive. This means the downside target from the pattern is still in play.

What’s that target? For Ethena price, that comes out to over 20% lower. The target sits at $0.066.

Before we get there, support exists at $0.095. That’s the first test. If that level holds, maybe the pattern fails. However, if $0.095 breaks, the next level is $0.08. That’s the neckline. Break below $0.08, and the 20% drop toward $0.066 gets triggered.

Here’s something most people missed. The story going around said whales were buying Ethena. Reports talked about accumulation. Open interest in futures went up to $110 million. That usually means big players are interested.

But on-chain data tells a different story. Big wallet holders actually sold. A lot. On Feb. 20, whales held 9.48 billion ENA tokens. By March 3, that number dropped to 9.3 billion. Simple math shows 180 million tokens got dumped.

That’s not accumulation. That’s distribution. Whales were selling while the price was dropping. They didn’t wait for higher prices. They sold into weakness. This happened quietly over two weeks. Nobody really noticed until checking the wallet data closely. So, why does this matter?

When big holders sell, it puts pressure on the price. Especially when they sell while the price is already going down. It shows they don’t believe in higher prices soon. If whales thought Ethena price was going to rally hard, they would buy or at least hold. They wouldn’t dump 180 million tokens.

This also explains why the 7% bounce couldn’t push through resistance. Selling pressure from whales made it hard for buyers to win. Every time the price tried to go up, sellers were waiting.

Technical signals point down. Hidden bearish divergence formed between Dec. 20 and March 2. During this time, Ethena price made a lower high. But the RSI indicator made a higher high. That mismatch signals trouble.

When price can’t make higher highs, but RSI does, it means buyers are trying harder but getting weaker results. That’s not a good sign for the bulls. It usually comes before drops.

The head and shoulders pattern is waiting for completion . If Ethena price falls below $0.08, the neckline breaks. That starts the 20% correction toward $0.066. From current levels around $0.115, that’s a big fall.

There’s one more problem coming. Token unlocks. On March 2, about 40 million ENA tokens got unlocked. The market handled that okay. But March 5 brings a much bigger unlock. 171 million tokens. That’s over four times larger.

When tokens unlock, holders can sell them. Not everyone sells right away. But some do. With 171 million new tokens available, selling pressure increases. This happens while the chart already looks weak. The timing is bad for bulls.

Protocol fundamentals are actually strong. USDe is the third biggest stablecoin with $6 billion in value. The protocol has $6 to $7 billion locked. Staking yields are 4% to 12%. The protocol works well.

But the token is different from the protocol. Governance tokens often lag behind protocol success. Right now, technical setup and whale selling suggest that the Ethena price has more downside before it finds a real bottom.

The post Ethena Price 7% Bounce Fails to Turn Bullish: Here’s Why a 20% Drop Looms appeared first on The Coin Republic.