Odaily Planet Daily reports: Steven Ehrlich, Research Director at Sharplink, posted on X that Ethereum (ETH) started July 2026 strongly, with a year-to-date gain of approximately 11% this month. Historical data suggests investors should pay attention to ETH’s performance in July. Over the past 10 years, ETH rose in four Julys, with an average gain of 43% during those months. Since 2020, July has been ETH’s strongest month on average, with a gain of about 27%, outperforming all other months.
The core advantage of ETH's July performance is not merely volatility, but the asymmetry between gains and losses: when July sees an increase, the average gain is approximately 43%, whereas in down years, the average decline is only about 5% (from 2020 to 2025). Historically, strong July performances by ETH have often coincided with catalysts specific to Ethereum itself:
July 2020: A 54% price surge marked the beginning of “DeFi Summer,” as Compound launched the COMP token, sparking a yield farming boom. DeFi’s total value locked (TVL) grew from approximately $1 billion to $4 billion within weeks, DEX monthly trading volume increased by 174%, and ETH benefited as the foundational infrastructure for DeFi.
July 2022: Price rose 58%; the Ethereum Merge upgrade schedule was confirmed on July 14, and market sentiment rebounded from the lows following the LUNA and 3AC crises, with approximately $337 million in short positions liquidated within three days.
July 2025: A 49% price increase, driven by the signing of the U.S. GENIUS Act, record monthly inflows of approximately $5.4 billion into spot ETH ETFs, accelerated corporate allocation to ETH, a staking rate of around 30%, and declining exchange balances contributing to supply constraints.
Historical surges in ETH have typically been driven by a combination of Ethereum-specific catalysts and supply-demand imbalances. For July 2026, Steven Ehrlich believes the current market environment presents similar opportunities:
1. Institutional infrastructure is under development; EthLabs (protocol development) and Ethereum Institutional have recently launched to drive institutional adoption into the on-chain ecosystem, with participation from Sharplink, BitMine, Joe Lubin, and others.
2. The Ethereum roadmap continues to evolve; on July 4, Vitalik Buterin proposed the "Lean Ethereum" initiative, aiming to simplify Ethereum’s architecture, improve speed, and enhance quantum resistance over the next three to four years—a development of significance comparable to The Merge.
3. Corporate funds continue to accumulate ETH, and digital asset reserve companies are still actively building their ETH holdings. Sharplink currently holds 886,725 ETH, added 10,000 ETH last week, and has stated its goal is to increase the amount of ETH per share.
Steven Ehrlich stated that Ethereum is entering a new phase of development, with institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and asset allocation likely to be key drivers of ETH's price movement.