Elon Musk Predicts AI Will Surpass Human Intelligence by End of 2026

Author: Wall Street Notes

Tesla CEO Elon Musk outlined an ambitious vision encompassing humanoid robots, autonomous driving, space exploration, and artificial intelligence (AI) at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He predicted that AI could surpass human intelligence as early as the end of this year, and that Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, could be available for public purchase as soon as the end of next year.

On Thursday, January 22nd local time, Elon Musk made a rare appearance at the Davos Forum, engaging in a conversation with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. Musk revealed that Tesla has already deployed some Optimus robots in its factories to perform simple tasks, and expects these robots to handle more complex work by the end of this year. Musk added that if Tesla gains full confidence in the robots' reliability, safety, and functional capabilities, the company plans to begin public sales by the end of next year.

In the conversation, Musk also stated that Tesla's autonomous driving taxi service, the Robotaxi, is expected to be widely deployed in the United States this year. "By the end of this year, this service will be extremely widespread across the U.S.," he said, adding that the Robotaxi service without in-vehicle safety supervisors has already started operating in Austin, Texas. SpaceX hopes to achieve full reusability of the Starship rocket this year. He predicted that by the end of this year, or at the latest by next year, AI will become "smarter than any human."

During Musk's speech, Tesla's stock price continued to rise. By midday on Thursday, the intraday gain expanded to more than 4%, and it closed with a gain of over 4%, reaching its highest closing level in over two weeks since January 5. After two consecutive days of gains, it erased most of the losses incurred since the beginning of 2026.

Tesla's core automotive business has experienced a decline in deliveries for two consecutive years due to an outdated product lineup and the cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies in the United States. The directions of self-driving technology, AI, and robotics that Musk mentioned this time are considered by him as key priorities for Tesla. In early September last year, Musk stated that about 80% of Tesla's value would come from his robot project, Optimus, which he first proposed four years ago.

Elon Musk has provided a more specific timeline for the commercialization of the Optimus humanoid robot.

He stated that sales to the public will begin when Tesla is confident the robot has "very high reliability, very high safety, and a very high range of functionality," at which point users will be able to "basically ask it to do almost anything you want."Musk said this will happen next year.

Previously, Musk predicted that humanoid robots would eventually outnumber humans, with billions of machines deployed not only in factories but also in homes, assisting with a wide range of tasks from doing the dishes to taking care of children. At the Davos Forum, he said:

If we have artificial intelligence that is nearly or completely free, along with ubiquitous robots, the global economy will experience explosive growth on an unprecedented scale. What does this mean for you? Billions of AI-driven robots will outnumber humans and fulfill all human needs. At some point, you will no longer be able to imagine what else you could ask of robots, because goods and services will be so abundant.

Tesla is currently using some Optimus robots in its factories to perform basic tasks. Musk predicts that by the end of 2026, these robots will be capable of "performing more complex tasks."

Although Musk often discusses the potential of Optimus, he has previously been relatively vague about production timelines and goals. During a January 2025 earnings call, he stated that a "very rough guess" would be that Tesla would begin delivering Optimus to other companies in the second half of 2026. Earlier this week, Musk also reminded that the initial production of Optimus and Tesla's latest model, Cybercab, will be "extremely slow."

In the field of autonomous driving, Musk claimed that it is "fundamentally a solved problem."He stated that by 2027, his company's autonomous taxis will be "very widespread" in the United States.

Musk stated that Tesla's full self-driving software is sometimes updated weekly, and some insurance companies are offering customers using the technology half-price insurance due to its safety record. Tesla has already launched robotaxi services in multiple cities and expects large-scale deployment in the U.S. by the end of this year. Approval for supervised full self-driving in Europe could be obtained as early as next month.

Regarding space exploration, Musk stated that SpaceX hopes to achieve full reusability of rockets this year through Starship. He described Starship as "the largest vehicle ever built," a breakthrough that would reduce the cost of reaching space by 100 times, bringing it below $100 per pound. While SpaceX has already demonstrated the ability to capture rocket boosters on launch pads, it has not yet attempted to recover and reuse Starship spacecraft.

Musk also discussed plans to launch solar-powered AI satellites in the coming years. He pointed out that solar panels in space are five times more efficient than those on Earth, due to continuous sunlight and the absence of atmospheric interference. He predicted that "the lowest-cost location for deploying AI will be in space," which he expects to be realized within two to three years.

Elon Musk has made bold predictions about the development of AI, stating that AI could become "smarter than any human" by the end of this year, or "at the latest, by next year." This prediction highlights his assessment of the rapid advancement of AI technology.

Regarding energy production, Musk stated that a solar panel area of 100 miles on each side could power the entire United States. He revealed that SpaceX and Tesla teams are separately working to establish 100 gigawatts per year of solar manufacturing capacity in the U.S. within about three years.

It was a surprise to see Musk appear in Davos this time, as he previously criticized the forum as "boring" and attacked the World Economic Forum for becoming "an unelected world government that people never asked for and don't want." In 2022, he posted on social media: "What is the World Economic Forum/Davos all about? Are they trying to be the bosses of the planet?"

In the conversation, Musk stated that the overall goal of his companies is to maximize the "likelihood of a good future for civilization" and to "extend consciousness beyond Earth."

At a forum, Musk engaged in a conversation with his friend Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock. Right at the beginning, he talked about his personal values and even made a few jokes about aliens.

"We have 9,000 satellites in orbit, but we've never encountered a situation requiring us to avoid alien spacecraft," said Musk. "We need to assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare—perhaps we are the only ones."

Musk also stated that he hasn't spent much time studying human aging, but he predicts that a solution will eventually be found. "When we discover the cause of aging, we will find the answer is obvious," he said.