Economists Predict 1% MoM CPI Increase in U.S. March Data, Fed Rate Cuts Seen as Unlikely in 2026

Huo Xing Finance reports that on April 5, economists stated that the sudden surge in gasoline prices felt directly by U.S. consumers will be fully reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. The U.S. March CPI is expected to rise 1% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly increase since 2022; core CPI may rise 0.3% month-over-month. Previously, the war in Iran pushed gasoline prices at U.S. gas stations up by approximately $1 per gallon. The day before the CPI release, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator will provide insight into price pressures prior to the conflict. Economists expect the core PCE price index to have risen 0.4% for the third consecutive month in February, suggesting that the slowdown in inflation toward more moderate levels had already stalled even before the conflict erupted. Combined with signs of stabilization in the U.S. labor market, persistent price pressures, and new inflation risks from the Middle East war, these factors help explain why the Fed may struggle to cut interest rates this year. (Jin Shi)