According to Cointelegraph, recent analysis by crypto-economist Timothy Peterson indicates that Bitcoin still holds structural upside potential amid the current bear market correction: over the past 24 months, 50% of months recorded positive returns (according to CoinGlass data, the positive months in 2025 include January, April, May, June, July, and September)—a metric suggesting a high probability of a positive turning point within any 24-month cycle. Based on this, Peterson estimates an 88% probability that Bitcoin will trade above its current level within the next 10 months (by December 2026). He emphasizes that this statistical model suggests the market may be nearing a turning point rather than continuing its downward trend. Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from its yearly high and having erased most of the gains made after the 2024–2025 U.S. election. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to “Extreme Fear” at 9, and social media sentiment around Bitcoin predictions has dried up (per Santiment data), with overall sentiment trending neutral.
Economist Timothy Peterson predicts an 88% chance of Bitcoin rising by the end of 2026.
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Summary
Bitcoin news: Economist Timothy Peterson predicts an 88% chance of Bitcoin rising by December 2026. His analysis shows that 50% of the past 24 months recorded positive returns, signaling a potential turning point. Bitcoin is currently trading at $68,173, down 25% from its 2025 peak, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 9.
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