ME News reports that on May 12 (UTC+8), crypto research firm Delphi Digital released its latest report, “How Far Can Saylor Stretch It,” which analyzes the sustainability of Strategy’s current Bitcoin accumulation strategy and highlights that its financing structure is nearing critical pressure thresholds. The report notes that Strategy’s early ability to consistently acquire BTC stemmed from MSTR’s stock price remaining substantially above the company’s Bitcoin net asset value (mNAV), enabling it to generate “Bitcoin per share growth” by issuing additional equity to purchase BTC. However, MSTR’s EV-based mNAV has now declined to approximately 1.24x, significantly narrowing the upside from further equity issuance and bringing the model close to breakeven. Meanwhile, Strategy has historically relied heavily on convertible debt financing. Although low-interest convertibles previously enabled rapid expansion, the company still carries approximately $8.2 billion in principal debt, which will enter a critical repayment phase beginning in September 2027. The report identifies STRC (Strategy Preferred) as the current primary financing mechanism supporting continued BTC purchases. STRC targets income-focused investors with a 11.5% annualized dividend paid monthly; proceeds are used to acquire more BTC without adding new convertible debt maturities. However, Delphi warns that this model comes at the cost of “growing fixed-income liabilities.” Each STRC financing round immediately increases BTC reserves but simultaneously adds future dividend payment obligations. The report cautions that this structure can remain viable if BTC prices continue rising and MSTR’s premium stays elevated—but if BTC remains range-bound for an extended period, dividend liabilities will accumulate while equity financing efficiency continues to deteriorate. Additionally, Strategy currently holds $2.25 billion in cash reserves, sufficient to cover approximately $1 billion in convertible debt put options due in 2027. However, a larger debt wall looms in 2028. Delphi also notes that the current authorized上限 for STRC financing is $28.3 billion. Once this limit is reached and cannot be expanded, Strategy’s ability to offset dividend dilution through continuous BTC purchases may significantly weaken—or cease entirely. (Source: BlockBeats)
Delphi Digital Report: Saylor's BTC Buy Model Approaches Critical Limits
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Summary
Delphi Digital’s latest weekly market report highlights concerns regarding MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchasing model. The company’s EV-based mNAV has declined to 1.24x, constraining equity financing returns. Over $8.2 billion in convertible bonds mature in 2027, increasing financial pressure. While STRC financing continues to support Bitcoin purchases, liabilities are rising. Delphi warns that stagnant Bitcoin prices could lead to higher dividend costs and reduced equity efficiency. The daily market report recommends close monitoring of MSTR’s financial leverage.
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