Author: Coingecko
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
As of June 24, the current Bitcoin bear market has lasted 233 days, making it the fourth-longest bear market cycle among the seven since 2014. This article defines a “bear market cycle” as a period during which Bitcoin’s closing price remains below its 200-day moving average (200 DMA) for 30 consecutive days or longer.
A moving average is a technical indicator that smooths out short-term price fluctuations to identify broader trends. The 200-day moving average (200 DMA) tracks the average closing price over the past 200 days and is a widely used benchmark for assessing the long-term direction of the market.
Overview of previous bear market cycles:
Daily closing price data is sourced from CoinGecko, covering January 1, 2014, to June 24, 2026.
The two longest bear markets in Bitcoin’s history were 2018–2019 (385 days) and 2022–2023 (381 days). Both followed structural collapses after new all-time highs, driven by excessive leverage and eroded confidence. The 2018–2019 bear market came immediately after the peak of the 2017 ICO boom, gradually subsiding as retail speculation waned and global regulatory scrutiny intensified. The 2022–2023 bear market was triggered by the collapse of the Terra/LUNA ecosystem in May 2022, which led to a chain reaction of failures including Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and ultimately FTX, completely shattering institutional confidence and dragging Bitcoin below $16,000 in November 2022.
The bear market from 2014–2015 (lasting 321 days) was caused by the collapse of Mt. Gox, the world’s largest bitcoin exchange at the time, completely shattering trust in the emerging market.
The other four bear markets were shorter and triggered by more isolated shock events. The 2019–2020 correction (81 days) and the mid-cycle adjustment in 2021 (80 days) were brief, with the former representing a consolidation phase during the market’s recovery and the latter caused by China’s mining ban, which led to a temporary plunge in hash rate and market sentiment. The 2020 “COVID-19 crash” (52 days), though the most severe, saw the fastest bottom, as it was a macro liquidity shock that was alleviated by global stimulus measures flooding into the market.
The current bear market, which began in 2025–2026 and has lasted 233 days as of this analysis, appears to stem from broader macroeconomic shifts: rising interest rate uncertainty, the fading post-halving rally momentum, and the rise of AI as a speculative asset class. These factors have pressured Bitcoin following its all-time high of $124,773 in January 2025.
How bad have previous bear markets really been?
The current 2025–2026 bear market is actually the mildest on record (hopefully), with a maximum drawdown of 51.2% from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $124,773. Previous bear market cycles all saw larger declines, with three major ones ranging between 76.7% and 83.6%.
The closest comparable event was the mid-2021 correction (a 52.9% decline), but that event lasted only 80 days and occurred within a broader bull market trend, rather than as an independent bear market cycle.
The two most destructive cycles in history were the 2018–2019 bear market (83.6% decline) and the 2014–2015 bear market (81.6% decline), both of which erased the vast majority of Bitcoin’s previous gains before rebounding. The 2022–2023 cycle (76.7% decline) was similarly severe, with Bitcoin falling from its all-time high of $67,617 to a low of $15,742 in November 2022.
Even brief, shock-induced crashes have caused significant losses: the 2020 COVID-19-induced crash, though lasting only 52 days, resulted in a 74.4% drawdown, highlighting how quickly crypto market sentiment and liquidity can deteriorate. This cycle has so far avoided such severe disruption, possibly reflecting more resilient market structures, higher institutional participation, or simply that the bear market has not yet run its course.
Is a recovery in sight?
As of June 24, Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average is at $76,450, while the spot price is $62,651, a 22% difference. This means a sustained rebound of more than one-fifth from current levels is required to reclaim the 200 DMA. Historically, the 200 DMA has acted as a strong resistance level during price recoveries, not just as support during downturns.
Currently, Bitcoin is approximately 2.9% above the cycle low of $60,861 set on June 7, 2026. In previous bear markets, the time span from confirming the bottom to reclaiming the 200 DMA ranged from as short as 65 days (2022–2023 cycle) to as long as 166 days (2014–2015 cycle). If June 7 truly marks the bottom of this bear market—which requires more time to confirm—then even under the fastest historical recovery pace, reclaiming the 200 DMA would not occur before August 2026.
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