Bitcoin’s record “long-term holder” pile may be hiding a buyer drought, according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. Price context Bitcoin traded near $73,500 Friday morning Hong Kong time (CoinDesk data), about 10% below the low-$80,000 levels seen earlier this month. That pullback comes as CryptoQuant flags a structural change beneath the surface: a record 15.8 million BTC is now classified as long-term holder supply — not necessarily because conviction is rising, but because market turnover is slowing. What CryptoQuant found Long-term holder supply usually gets framed as bullish: investors take coins out of circulation, shrinking available supply while new demand pushes prices higher. CryptoQuant argues the current record is often just an accounting outcome of lower trading activity. With whale accumulation stalling and demand from ETFs and other large buyers cooling, fewer coins are changing hands and more wallets simply age into the long-term category. Key metrics - Short-term holder supply has fallen by roughly 2.2 million BTC since December. - About 900,000 BTC of that decline came from Coinbase reserves crossing the 155-day threshold used to classify long-term holders — a technical reclassification that nonetheless signals reduced movement. - Whale balances (1,000–10,000 BTC wallets) are contracting year-over-year at the fastest pace of 2026, and monthly whale balance growth has been near zero since February. - Dolphin balances (100–1,000 BTC wallets) also show slowing annual growth after peaking at 970,000 BTC in October 2025 — a peak that coincided with $3.4 billion in monthly BTC ETF inflows. CryptoQuant notes the dolphin cohort is heavily influenced by spot ETFs and corporate treasury buying, making it a useful proxy for institutional demand. Other signals line up Glassnode’s recent report similarly finds weakening spot demand, fading ETF inflows and capital flows too modest to sustain a move above key cost-basis levels near $78,000. Its Realized Profit/Loss Ratio sits at 1.56, below the 2–5 range commonly seen in the early stages of persistent bull markets. Prediction markets echo the lack of momentum: a Polymarket contract tracking May 30’s BTC closing range shows roughly an 84% probability BTC finishes between $72,000 and $76,000. Bottom line The consensus across on-chain data, ETF activity and prediction markets is not outright bearishness but thinning participation. Bitcoin remains above $70,000, yet a growing share of supply is simply staying put — suggesting the market is increasingly driven by existing holders rather than fresh buyers. That thinner market can make prices more sensitive to relatively small shifts in demand or selling, leaving BTC vulnerable to outsized moves unless new inflows return.
CryptoQuant: Record 15.8M BTC in Long-Term Hands May Mask Buyer Drought
ChainGPTShare
Summary
CryptoQuant warns that a record 15.8 million BTC in long-term investing may hide a buyer drought, not bullish conviction. Short-term holder supply fell 2.2 million BTC since December, with 900,000 BTC from Coinbase now labeled as long-term. Whale and dolphin balances show slower growth, while ETF inflows have declined. Glassnode and Polymarket confirm weak demand. A long-term crypto strategy may face headwinds if this trend continues.
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.