Foreign media: Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes this Bitcoin downtrend may persist until early 2027, based on CryptoQuant’s on-chain PnL Index Signal. The indicator shows that after the market enters a phase of concentrated profit-taking, the overall profit and loss position of investors typically remains weak for approximately 18 months.
The indicator suggests that the downtrend has not yet ended.
Ju stated on X that this cycle shift began in October 2025, and the current trend resembles the long-term corrections seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Based on historical patterns, a阶段性 bottom may occur in early 2027.
He noted that a true reversal is not determined solely by a price rebound, but by the simultaneous appearance of two indicators: rising unrealized profits and falling realized profits. This suggests that selling pressure is beginning to ease, and buyers are regaining control. Based on current data, this combination has not yet occurred.
Bitcoin is consolidating around $73,000.
The report noted that when Ju posted, the price of Bitcoin was near $73,000, down approximately 30% from its 2025 high. During the same period, U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, putting overall pressure on risk assets and increasing market risk-off sentiment.
CryptoQuant’s on-chain data also shows that funds flowing into Bitcoin continue to increase, but market capitalization has not expanded in tandem. According to Ju’s framework, this divergence—where funds are entering but prices remain stagnant or decline—is a classic characteristic of a bear market phase.
CoinGlass data shows concentrated sell orders near $74,200 and $74,500, forming a short-term resistance zone.
ETF and over-the-counter demand will be the key focus going forward.
Ju believes that for a more sustained recovery, two demand-side variables warrant close attention: whether spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows regain momentum, and whether activity on institutional OTC trading desks rebounds.
Reports indicate that ETFs have continued to experience net inflows over the past few months, but the pace has clearly slowed compared to the peak levels seen at the beginning of 2025. Institutional over-the-counter demand has also softened, reducing the price-boosting impact of new capital.
The article also mentions that if the U.S. Clarity Act progresses, it could improve sentiment among some institutions. However, Ju’s PnL model does not rely on policy timelines; its assessments are primarily based on the on-chain profit and loss cycle itself.