CryptoQuant: Bitcoin May Rebound to $71,500–$81,200 If Macro Risks Ease

Huo Xing Finance reports that, on April 2, according to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant released a report indicating that, despite sustained institutional buying, spot demand for Bitcoin remains in a "deep contraction." As of late March, the 30-day apparent demand registered a growth of approximately -63,000 BTC, signaling that selling pressure continues to outweigh buying interest. CryptoQuant noted, "Despite accelerated institutional purchases, overall apparent demand continues to contract, indicating that selling by retail investors and other market participants exceeds incremental institutional buying." This demand contraction has persisted since late November 2025, "confirming that the broader market remains in a distribution phase." Whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have shifted into net distributors, with their combined holdings decreasing by approximately 188,000 BTC over the past year. The 365-day moving average remains in a downtrend, and "historically, sustained negative whale accumulation has coincided with prolonged price weakness; the current reading suggests selling remains a significant structural headwind." The Coinbase Premium (tracking U.S. buying interest) has also remained largely negative as Bitcoin traded in the $65,000–$70,000 range, indicating that U.S. investors have not yet returned to the market in significant numbers. CryptoQuant believes that if macroeconomic conditions improve—particularly if tensions between the U.S. and Iran de-escalate—Bitcoin could rebound to the $71,500–$81,200 range, with $81,200 representing the realized price that capped the bear market rally in January 2026.