BlockBeats news, on May 12, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator turned green for the first time since 2023, with on-chain analyst Julio Moreno stating that this typically signals a shift from a bear market structure to a recovery phase.
Moreno noted that historically, when this indicator exits bear market territory and enters the "Early Bull" zone, it often signals that the worst correction phase has ended and market structure is beginning to recover.
However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is better suited for identifying shifts in market phases rather than providing precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest value of such indicators lies in determining whether "Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear-market asset," with true confirmation still requiring sustained demand, improved liquidity, and price stability within key ranges.
Bitcoin has yet to effectively break through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded approximately 35% from its February low of around $60,000, the market remains in a tug-of-war.
Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin still needs to absorb some of its current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral fear and greed index and a complex macroeconomic environment.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a阶段性 bottoming process near $60,000 this year. He stated that once Bitcoin breaks above $90,000, the market could enter a "explosive phase," with the target once again pointing toward the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts have cautioned that on-chain metrics such as MVRV and NUPL are fundamentally more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be treated as absolute predictive tools.