CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Enters Risk-Off Phase, ETF Demand Momentum Lags Behind Last Year’s Peak

ChainCatcher reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment—a significant signal indicating that the market is currently more in a “risk-off” phase. Until Bitcoin’s on-chain “Impulse” indicator returns above the zero line, any rally remains unconfirmed. He noted that his recently released fourth part of “Decision Architecture for Bitcoin” constructs a macro framework based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core insight is that not all macro fluctuations disrupt on-chain structures; however, when macro factors enter a “dominant mode,” the market may temporarily lose upward momentum even if on-chain data appears positive. Additionally, CryptoQuant this week introduced a new U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF dashboard, featuring weekly net inflows, cumulative flows, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and fund-level capital allocations. Currently, the 30-day ETF momentum stands at just $362.8 million, compared to a peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025. Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a critical indicator for observing U.S. spot demand: when this index remains consistently above zero, it signals ongoing U.S. buying support; if it turns negative, any BTC price rise may lack genuine U.S. demand backing.