Odaily Planet Daily reports: CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment, a significant signal indicating that the market is currently more akin to a "risk-off" phase. Until Bitcoin’s on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every rally remains unconfirmed.
He noted that the fourth part of his recently released "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" establishes a macro framework based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core insight is that not all macro volatility disrupts on-chain structures; however, when macro factors truly enter a "dominant mode," the market may temporarily lose upward momentum—even if on-chain data remains positive.
Additionally, CryptoQuant has this week launched a new dashboard for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, covering weekly net inflows, cumulative flows, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and fund-specific asset allocations. Currently, the 30-day ETF momentum stands at $362.8 million, compared to a peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.
Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a key indicator of U.S. spot demand: when the index remains consistently above zero, it signals that U.S. buying continues to support the market; if it turns negative, BTC’s price movements may lack genuine U.S. demand support, even if prices rise.