Crypto Market Awaits PPI, Nvidia Earnings, and Clarity Act Odds

Key Insights

• This week will see the release of Nvidia earnings, PPI inflation data, and other significant updates.
• Odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 have just fallen from 72% down to 42%.
• The fear & greed index is at 5 again, as the CME smart money shift signals a potential BTC reversal.

The crypto market is bracing for yet another busy week as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and major institutions release major updates. Fundamental news typically triggers the markets, leading to sharp price movements in either direction.

In addition to the news, the market is anticipating the outcome of the Clarity Act. This comes as the crypto fear and greed index drops to lows seen in extreme bear markets, suggesting a bottom may be approaching.

However, it’s still unclear whether the PPI and Nvidia [NVDA] news can influence the market’s direction, as they have in the past.

Events typically dominate the economic calendar on a weekly basis, but the two most significant ones appeared to have an impact this week.

First, the U.S. market opened after Trump’s global tariffs. Bitcoin had just crashed to $65,000 as over $230 million in leveraged longs were liquidated in only an hour. As the week progressed, the Fed would release ADP Employment Change on February 24th.

On February 25th, Nvidia will release its Q4 earnings, which is some of the most important news. The previous release sparked massive market reactions, especially from AI coins like Near Protocol (NEAR) and Bittensor (TAO), among others.

Additionally, initial jobless claims data will be released on Thursday this week. A higher-than-expected value would indicate more workers were losing jobs, thereby reducing buying power, and vice versa.

More importantly, the U.S. PPI and Core PPI data, which measure inflation, would be released on Friday. A higher value than expected would be bearish for crypto as it signals entrenched inflation, which could trigger risk-off behavior. A smaller value would be bullish, as it suggests cooling inflation. Hence, it would boost the current market conditions.

A positive value in both Nvidia and PPI data would trigger a move to the upside for crypto. The converse would accelerate the current decline in the crypto markets.

As the holders brace for this week’s fundamentals, the market sentiment has hit a new low, surpassing the extreme low seen during bear seasons. As per Michael van de Poppe, the Fear & Greed Index hit a low of 5, indicating extreme fear.

This value was lower than during the crashes of COVID, FTX, and the 2018 Bitcoin Hardfork saga. This indicated participants were overly bearish, hence the capital outflow since the October 10th crash. That liquidation event was potentially the start of a bear market.

Interestingly, this could signal a capitulation level, paving the way for a market rebound. To back this potential was the CME’s smart money signal. According to CryptoRus, Bitcoin bottomed when CME traders flipped net long, which was unfolding this February.

In fact, these traders reduced their bearish exposure massively over the past month. Historical data showed that such incidents led to a 70% rally in 2025 and 190% in 2023. Current projections put BTC at around $85K.

However, this rally was not guaranteed, as crypto optimism was fading. This was evident in the odds of passing the Clarity Act into law in 2026.

According to Polymarket, traders were reducing their bets that the Clarity Act would become law this year. The scuffle has stalled in the U.S. Senate over stablecoin regulations.

Banks have been aggressively opposing the act, seeing it as a threat to their industry, as stablecoins offered yields and lower fees.

Altogether, the events of this week, especially PPI and Nvidia data, could shape crypto’s move in the coming sessions. However, this was dependent on the data.

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