Crypto analyst Merlijn the Trader is warning traders to watch a recurring midterm pattern that has historically presaged sharp Bitcoin sell-offs — a setup he says has driven average declines of about 15% when it shows up. In a May 19 X post, Merlijn flagged the pattern as present in the current cycle and suggested it could herald another major correction for BTC. What he’s tracking is a distinct cyclical rhythm that’s played out in past midterm years: a steep Q1 drop, a relief rally in Q2, and then a sharper crash that drives the market toward a late-year cycle bottom. Merlijn traces the sequence back to 2018 and 2022 as the clearest examples. - 2018: Bitcoin plunged roughly 25% in January, rallied more than 33% into April, then fell again by about 19% in May before finding a cycle low around December. - 2022: BTC dropped about 17% in Q1, staged a modest recovery of over 5% in March, then declined roughly 16% in April and reached a cycle bottom in November. According to Merlijn, the current cycle is showing the same script. He notes BTC already endured a roughly 23% slide in Q1, then produced a relief rally of over 14% from March into April 2026. That rebound appears to be losing steam, with May bringing renewed volatility and downward pressure. Merlijn hasn’t issued a precise price target, but he expects the midterm-year bottom to form between November and December if history repeats. Other analysts are echoing bearish concerns. Crypto analyst Chiefy pointed to a confirmed Head & Shoulders breakdown on BTC’s chart in a recent X post, calling the market into a “retest” phase and projecting a potential drop to $37,000. With Bitcoin cited as trading above $77,000 at the time of the commentary, that target would imply a decline of more than 52%. Technical patterns don’t guarantee outcomes, but the repeated midterm sequence highlighted by Merlijn — coupled with structural signals like the Head & Shoulders noted by Chiefy — has traders bracing for the possibility of a significant correction later in the year.
Crypto Analyst Warns of 15% Bitcoin Sell-Off by Year-End Amid Midterm Pattern
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Summary
Bitcoin analysis from Merlijn the Trader highlights a recurring midterm pattern linked to year-end Bitcoin sell-offs. Citing ChainGPT, he notes similar declines in 2018 and 2022, with BTC dropping sharply in late-year. In 2026, Bitcoin news reported a 23% Q1 fall, a 14% rebound in March–April, and renewed May volatility. Merlijn warns of a possible 15% correction in November–December if the pattern repeats. Analyst Chiefy also points to bearish signals, including a Head & Shoulders breakdown, projecting a drop to $37,000 from $77,000.
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