Crypto Analyst Merlijn Warns of Potential 15% BTC Correction Amid Midterm Pattern

Crypto analyst Merlijn the Trader has raised a fresh warning for Bitcoin investors, pointing to a recurring midterm-year pattern that has historically foreshadowed sharp BTC sell-offs. According to his chart work, the signal has previously preceded average drawdowns of roughly 15%, and he says the same structure is appearing in the current cycle. What Merlijn sees - In an X post on May 19, Merlijn flagged a cyclical sequence that has shown up in every midterm year since 2018. The pattern he describes: a steep Q1 decline, a relief rally in Q2, then a sharp late-year crash that produces a cycle low toward year-end. - Historically, this sequence has produced meaningful volatility and material drawdowns — Merlijn argues the current market could be headed for a similar outcome, with a potential midterm bottom forming in November–December. Past cycles that fit the pattern - 2018: Bitcoin plunged about 25% in January, rallied more than 33% into Q2 (around April), then fell about 19% in May and eventually reached a final cycle low in December. - 2022: BTC fell roughly 17% in Q1, recovered a little over 5% in March, then dropped about 16% in April and ultimately bottomed around November. The current cycle - Merlijn notes Bitcoin already suffered a roughly 23% decline in Q1 of this cycle, followed by a relief rally of over 14% from March into April 2026. He says the recent momentum is fading, with May bringing renewed volatility and downward pressure. - While he hasn’t published a precise downside target, Merlijn warns the historical pattern points to a significant correction and a year-end low if history repeats. Other voices echo the caution - Analyst Chiefy has reached a similar bearish read, tweeting that BTC is tracing a “Head & Shoulders breakdown” — a classic reversal pattern that, once confirmed, often leads to a retest and further weakness. Chiefy’s view projects a potential revisit to $37,000. - For context, with Bitcoin cited as trading above $77,000 in these posts, a fall to $37,000 would imply a loss of around 52% from that price level. What to watch - Key signals to monitor include whether the Q2 relief rally loses steam, confirmation or failure of the Head & Shoulders breakdown, and price action through the summer that could set up a late-year low. Analysts caution that these patterns are historical tendencies, not guarantees, but they do add a note of risk for market participants planning positions into the second half of the year.