Source: Coinbase
Compiled by: Felix, PANews
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released the Q2 2026 Charting Crypto report, which states that the outlook for the cryptocurrency market in Q2 2026 is neutral due to the ongoing and highly uncertain geopolitical landscape.
PANews has summarized the key points of the report; details are as follows.
The current geopolitical landscape remains persistent and highly uncertain, making it difficult to make confident short-term investment decisions. Therefore, the report recommends adopting a strategy that balances risk and return under the present conditions. Financial markets are primarily driven by macroeconomic events and the latest developments in the Middle East conflict, where the situation is rapidly evolving. Although the ultimate impact of the conflict on the global economy remains unclear, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a statement lowering its global GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.4% to 3.1%, assuming “the duration and scope of the conflict remain limited.” However, Oxford Economics estimates that the severity of oil supply disruptions could cause global GDP growth to slow to 1.4% by 2026, as “the United States and most major advanced economies will enter recession.”
The crypto market still features some important special factors, such as regulatory developments and the rise of AI. However, their significance pales in comparison to broader uncertainties that remain elusive to market participants. The report cautiously optimism that macro conditions have turned positive, potentially helping many crypto assets bottom out in the short term and recover by the latter part of this quarter. Indeed, technical indicators across both crypto and equity markets have generally turned positive, but this still hinges on whether Iran can reach an agreement.
In addition to geopolitics, the IMF’s recent spring meeting brought together finance ministers and central bank governors to discuss the potential systemic risks posed by Anthropic’s newly launched Mythos AI model. The report suggests that the model’s ability to exploit security vulnerabilities could impact future markets.
Meanwhile, the report identifies two intrinsic factors within the crypto space worth monitoring in the medium to short term: the progress of the CLARITY Act and advancements in post-quantum cryptography.
It is worth noting that the report highlights that a complete resolution of the Middle East conflict, accompanied by lower oil prices and reduced inflation, could support a broad strengthening of risk assets. Positive developments on regulatory issues may also reignite enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. Conversely, an escalation of the conflict and further rises in oil prices could undermine investor confidence and hinder global economic growth, as the risk of a global recession increases.
Global Investor Survey
Between March 16 and April 7, 2026, a survey was conducted with 91 global investors (29 institutional and 62 non-institutional) to understand their views on cryptocurrency market trends, industry positioning, risk management, and more.
Survey results show that by the end of the first quarter, investor sentiment had shifted明显 toward bearish views at the cycle's end. Currently, approximately 82% of institutional investors and 70% of non-institutional investors believe the market is in a bear market (declining) or at the end of a bear market, up from 31% and 36% in December 2025.
However, investors still believe Bitcoin is significantly undervalued. Three-quarters of institutional investors (75%) and about three-fifths of non-institutional investors (61%) believe Bitcoin is undervalued, with little change since December last year; only 7% of institutional investors and 11% of non-institutional investors believe Bitcoin is overvalued.
Additionally, expectations regarding Bitcoin’s dominance have shifted toward a “steady state.” The proportion of institutional investors expecting an increase in Bitcoin’s dominance has declined from 40% to 25%, while a majority of institutional investors (54%) now expect dominance to remain near current levels (up from 44% previously), with another 21% expecting a decline in dominance.
Market Overview
Due to widespread selling, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 18% in the first quarter of 2026. Notably, during the same period, the total supply of stablecoins increased from $308 billion to $318 billion, suggesting that some sellers may have chosen to remain within the crypto ecosystem, waiting for market volatility to subside.
From the perspective of correlation with macro assets, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the daily return correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stock returns (represented by the S&P 500 index) rose to 0.58, indicating that despite some differences in absolute performance metrics, this correlation remains statistically significant.
Meanwhile, to the disappointment of most cryptocurrency market participants, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold remains negligible, as gold has become one of the best-performing assets of 2025.
Cryptocurrency and Macro Asset Correlation Matrix
Bitcoin
In the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin options open interest increased slightly by 2.4% compared to the end of Q4 2025, while perpetual contracts open interest showed a more significant recovery, rising approximately 8.6%. The latter suggests that the Bitcoin market structure may be normalizing following the deleveraging event on October 10, 2025.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is the difference between relative unrealized profits and relative unrealized losses. These ranges are designed to reflect the sentiment of different investors.
According to the NUPL indicator, after the selling pressure in February, investor sentiment shifted from anxiety to fear and remained in that state through the end of the first quarter of 2026, particularly during the early stages of the Iran conflict. Recently, the indicator appears to have broken into the optimistic zone in April, but it remains largely driven by news events.
The amount of Bitcoin supply traded over the past three months decreased by 37% in the first quarter of 2026, while the portion of supply not traded for over a year increased by 1%, suggesting that some pure speculators may have been squeezed out of the market.
The chart below shows the percentage of Bitcoin's total supply that is in profit, along with two statistical bands set at +1 and -1 standard deviations. These bands represent key warning and accumulation zones. The indicator currently suggests Bitcoin is in an accumulation zone, confirming a positive technical outlook heading into the second quarter of 2026.
The chart below compares the Bitcoin circulating supply that has not been traded for at least one year with the Bitcoin circulating supply that has been actively traded recently (within the past three months). In the first quarter of 2026, the Bitcoin supply traded in the past three months decreased by 37%, while the portion of supply not traded for over a year increased by 1%, suggesting that some pure speculators may have been squeezed out of the market.
The chart below shows the net change in long-term holder holdings (based on a threshold of 155 days or more) versus the net change in exchange holdings. The report suggests that the convergence of these two data points—where both long-term holder holdings and exchange net holdings increase simultaneously—can reveal when profit-taking is actually occurring.
The green-highlighted period in the chart indicates an increase in long-term holder holdings alongside a decrease in exchange holdings, suggesting that tokens are leaving exchanges and increasing the likelihood that long-term holders were accumulating rather than distributing during this period.
Ethereum
In early February 2026, during the selling spree, the NUPL dropped below the "capitulation" phase and remained there for most of the first quarter of 2026, but beginning in early April, market sentiment began shifting toward the "hope" phase.
In the first quarter of 2026, the share of ETH that had not moved in over a year increased by 1%, while the share that moved within the past three months decreased by 38%, suggesting that many pure speculators may have been squeezed out of the market.
Related reading: Q1 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Share Research Report