Coinbase Cuts 14% Workforce Amid AI-Driven Restructuring

• Coinbase cuts 14% workforce as Kalshi sees 92% odds 2026 tech layoffs exceed 2025 levels.
• Armstrong says AI lets engineers ship in days what previously took entire teams several weeks.
• Coinbase previously cut 18% in 2022 and 20% in 2023, but those were market-driven, not AI-driven.

Coinbase’s decision to cut 14% of its workforce on Tuesday is being read by prediction market traders as confirmation of a trend that is only getting started. Kalshi currently prices a 92% probability that total tech layoffs in 2026 will exceed the 447,000 recorded in 2025. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics already reporting 178,000 layoffs in the information sector through March alone, that threshold looks increasingly likely to be crossed well before year’s end.

Coinbase is the latest data point in what is becoming a clear pattern. Block cut more than 4,000 of its 10,000-plus employees in February, explicitly citing artificial intelligence as the operational driver. Tuesday’s announcement from Coinbase carries the same stated rationale, separating both companies from the wave of market-driven cuts that defined 2022 and 2023.

CEO Brian Armstrong published the internal email he sent to staff, laying out a case that is less about the current crypto market and more about a fundamental shift in how companies can operate.

“Over the past year, I’ve watched engineers use AI to ship in days what used to take a team weeks,” Armstrong wrote. “Non-technical teams are now shipping production code, and many of our workflows are being automated. The pace of what’s possible with a small, focused team has changed dramatically.”

The restructuring eliminates management layers, caps the organizational hierarchy at five levels below CEO and COO, and replaces traditional managers with what Armstrong calls player-coaches, leaders who contribute directly alongside their teams. The company is moving toward AI-native pods, small generalist teams capable of managing fleets of AI agents to produce output that previously required far larger headcounts.

Coinbase cut 18% of its workforce in June 2022 as crypto prices collapsed and another 20% in January 2023 after the FTX implosion. Both prior reductions were market responses. This one is presented as a proactive redesign.

“The biggest risk now is not taking action,” he wrote. “We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native,” he said.

Affected US employees will receive a minimum of 16 weeks’ base pay, their next equity vest, and six months of healthcare coverage. System access was removed on the same day the announcement was made.

Related: Coinbase Moves New York AG Lawsuit to Federal Court Over Prediction Markets