According to data from Jin Ten, today's CME "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, while the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 20.6%, with a 78.5% probability of maintaining the current interest rate, and a 0.9% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut.
CME FedWatch: 95% Probability of No Rate Cut in January 2026
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Summary
CME FedWatch data indicates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026, with a 5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. For March, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut rises to 20.6%, while the probability of no change remains at 78.5%. The chance of a 50-basis-point cut is minimal at 0.9%. Amid regulatory developments such as MiCA and CFT compliance measures, market participants continue to closely monitor signals from the Fed's monetary policy.
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