CME FedWatch: 88.8% Probability of No Rate Hike in July

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 11.2%. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 51.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 44%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 4.7%. AI Analysis: The market’s consensus on the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in the near term remains exceptionally strong, reflecting that current monetary policy has entered a phase of high certainty. The overwhelming probability of rate stability effectively eliminates any near-term space for rate hikes. This pricing logic completely rules out the possibility of a near-term policy shift, with market focus now entirely centered on博弈 over the timing of future rate cuts. The current interest rate expectations structure clearly anchors the Fed’s policy stance of maintaining a tight posture through the summer.