As reported by TechFlow, the CME FedWatch data on December 23, 2025, shows an 80.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026. The chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is 19.9%. By March 2026, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 44.7%, with 47.1% for no rate change and 8.2% for a 50-basis-point cut.
CME FedWatch: 80.1% Probability of No Rate Cut in January 2026
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CME FedWatch data from December 23, 2025, shows an 80.1% chance the Fed will hold rates steady in January 2026. A 25-basis-point cut has 19.9% odds. By March, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut rises to 44.7%, with 47.1% for no change and 8.2% for a 50-basis-point cut. Amid global efforts in Countering the Financing of Terrorism, regulatory clarity under EU Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation remains a key focus for market participants.
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