According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut; the probability that the Fed will hold rates steady through July is 91.3%, with a 7.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 1.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut.
CME Data Shows High Probability of Fed Holding Rates Unchanged in June and July
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Summary
CME's FedWatch tool indicates a 98.5% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged in June, with a 1.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. Inflation data will be closely monitored ahead of the decision. By July, the probability of no rate change remains high at 91.3%, while the chances of a hike and a cut are 7.4% and 1.4%, respectively. Interest rate developments continue to shape market expectations.
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