The momentum of the CLARITY Act, the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Act, is under renewed pressure. Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at TD Cowen, stated that as political polarization in Washington intensifies, the legislative prospects for this key U.S. crypto regulatory bill are weakening, reducing the likelihood of its passage this year.
Conflict of interest clause becomes a new obstacle
The report mentions that Section 307 of the bill may prevent the president, members of Congress, and senior officials from participating in cryptocurrency transactions. If this direction is strengthened, it could impact crypto-related businesses connected to Trump, including World Liberty Financial, American Bitcoin, and meme coin projects such as TRUMP and MELANIA.
Seiberg noted that this puts greater pressure on Democrats. Without stricter ethical constraints, some Democrats may be reluctant to support the bill; however, if the amendment is seen as directly targeting Trump, Republicans' willingness to push the bill forward may also diminish.
Trump-related controversies increase pressure
Seiberg also noted that recent political events related to Trump have further increased the difficulty for Democrats to publicly support the bill.
One of the items is the resolution of a dispute between Trump and the Internal Revenue Service. The report states that the arrangement involves a $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization fund" to compensate individuals who claim they were targeted by government investigations.
Another point of concern is financial disclosures. Government financial records show that in the first quarter of 2026, nearly 3,600 stock trades were executed on behalf of Trump, some of which reportedly coincided with his public policy statements at the time.
Predictive market sentiment is clearly divided
- Polymarket estimates the probability of passage within the year at approximately 58%.
- Amiom estimates approximately 24% for those approved before June 30.
- Members of Congress are not in agreement on short-term progress.
Tim Scott recently stated that he still expects the cryptocurrency market structure bill to ultimately pass with bipartisan support. Cynthia Lummis cautioned that expectations for a near-term breakthrough may be "overly optimistic."
Overall, the CLARITY Act is still under discussion, but the difficulty of rapidly passing the bill in the short term is increasing amid ongoing debates over conflict-of-interest provisions and controversies related to Trump.