CLARITY Act Approval Odds Drop To 60% Amid Senate Scheduling Delays

A July 4 target date for advancing crypto market-structure legislation through the Senate is now looking less certain, according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research.

Alex Thorn revised his probability estimate for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% down to 60%, citing a Senate schedule that has grown increasingly crowded with competing priorities.

Next week’s agenda is expected to be taken up largely by FISA-related business following a failed reauthorization vote, leaving little room for crypto legislation to advance.

Thorn said the obstacle is no longer political will — support for the bill has not collapsed. The problem is time.

i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today

i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now next… pic.twitter.com/2EcxMb3Hwh

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 5, 2026

Two sticking points remain on the table: lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions tied to the bill. Neither has been resolved, and the lack of movement on both fronts has further complicated the path forward.

Despite the lowered odds, Thorn said he remains optimistic about the bill’s eventual chances — though he cautioned that the timeline is now more fluid than many had assumed.

The CLARITY Act is widely considered the most consequential crypto legislation currently before Congress. Its central aim is to settle a long-running dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over who regulates what in the digital asset space.

Under the proposal, tokens classified as commodities would fall under CFTC oversight, while those deemed securities would stay with the SEC — a distinction that would reshape how exchanges operate and what compliance requirements apply to crypto projects.

Supporters say federal clarity on those boundaries would cut regulatory uncertainty and keep crypto development from migrating abroad.

Senator Cynthia Lummis had previously pointed to July 4 as a marker for getting market-structure legislation moving in the Senate.

Thorn’s revised figure puts pressure on that informal target. His assessment reflects scheduling constraints, not a shift in how lawmakers view the bill itself.

For crypto stakeholders awaiting regulatory certainty, the revised outlook points to a potentially longer path toward comprehensive legislation.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView