ChainThink reports that on March 19, Citrini Research, author of "The Doomsday Report," published a commentary on recent market conditions, stating that they truly see no possibility of the stock market not continuing to decline in the short term.
The market has been so eager for good news that people have started fabricating it themselves, forgetting that in an actual war, both sides must agree to end it (or one side must surrender). They will eventually realize this.
The market has fully priced in the Fed’s rate-cut cycle. Two weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was priced 75 basis points lower than the March 2026 level; it has now declined to just 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the IOR (interest on reserve balances) remains firmly above the two-year yield, indicating that reserve managers do not expect further rate cuts and are not buying during declines. If the non-farm payrolls data comes in strong, it will severely disrupt the rates market—at a time when financing is becoming increasingly critical for the world’s largest corporations; if the data is weak, I believe the stock market will not react positively either.
All of this is happening at a time when AI may not yet be convincing enough for companies to replace workers with machines under normal operating conditions, but is certainly sufficient to encourage companies to use it to fill positions they had to eliminate due to economic pressures—and potentially discover they no longer need to rehire for those roles.
It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and dismiss them by saying, “Already priced in”—this has historically been a solid strategy, as markets typically experience 10–15% pullbacks in most years—but consider that the S&P 500 is currently only about 5% below its all-time high.