Citibank: Weak Yen May Lead to Three Rate Hikes by BOJ in 2026

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Akira Hoshino of Citibank said the weak yen could push the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates three times in 2026, reaching 1%. If the USD/JPY pair hits 160, the first rate hike could occur in April, followed by two more increases. Hoshino expects the yen to trade between 150 and 165 this year. Meanwhile, global regulators, such as the European Union, are advancing the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework to strengthen oversight of the cryptocurrency sector. The new regulations could affect how banks like Citibank manage compliance under CFT frameworks.

BlockBeats news: On January 20, Akira Hoshino, head of Citigroup's Japan business, stated that if the Japanese yen continues to weaken, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise interest rates three times this year, doubling the current rate level. Hoshino said in an interview that if the USD/JPY exchange rate breaks through 160, the BOJ might increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 1% in April.


He believes that if the yen remains weak, a second rate hike of a similar magnitude could occur in July, and even a third hike could be possible before the end of the year. "Simply put, the yen's weakness is driven by negative real interest rates," said Hoshino. "If the Bank of Japan wants to reverse the exchange rate trend, it has no choice but to address this issue." Currently, Hoshino expects the yen to fluctuate this year within a range slightly below 150 to 165 against the U.S. dollar. (Gold 10)

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