ChainThink reports that, according to the South China Morning Post on March 17, Citibank’s research division expects the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to announce the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses this month. Citing experience from mainland payment institutions, Citibank estimates that the total volume of stablecoins circulating on Hong Kong platforms could reach approximately $16 billion (around HK$124.8 billion, with a range of ±$8 billion). This figure could rise further if there is a surge in on-chain activity and increased demand from overseas markets.
Analysis indicates that licensing will drive the compliance of the stablecoin ecosystem, with VATP becoming a necessary path. However, the ecosystem is still in its early stages, and market participants such as OSL are expected to require significant investment over the next 2 to 3 years, facing short-term profitability challenges.