Author: Serenity
Compiled by Deep潮 TechFlow
DeepInsight Summary: All discussions about the robotics revolution focus on AI and software, but this tweet highlights a more fundamental structural risk: China controls 70% of rare earth mining, 85 to 90% of refining and separation capacity, and over 90% of rare earth magnet manufacturing. Joints and actuators in humanoid robots like Optimus rely entirely on Chinese or Japanese suppliers, with the U.S. retaining only the "brain." Using detailed material lists and Morgan Stanley’s demand forecasts, the author quantifies the impact on rare earth reserves in an era of one billion humanoid robots.
The full text is as follows:
The United States is losing the race against China in robotics and humanoid robots.
Software and AI are only half the battlefield.
China holds a kill switch over the U.S. robotics hardware supply chain because the U.S. cannot manufacture the materials needed for humanoid robots at a reasonable cost.
Once China flips this "off switch," the entire U.S. robotics industry will slow down—because China holds dominant control over the "body" components (actuators, reducers, metallurgy) and raw materials required to manufacture humanoid robots.
Therefore, Boston Dynamics has contracted with Chinese manufacturers to source all humanoid robot components in order to assemble products like Optimus at a sufficiently low cost. However, they are trying to keep the "brain" in the United States.
Look at all the top robot drive/motion suppliers—none are from the United States:
- Leaderdrive (China): Harmonic Drive
- Harmonic Drive (Japan): Harmonic Gear
- Nabtesco (Japan): RV Reducer
- Sanhua Intelligent (China): Linear Actuator Assembly
- Double Ring Transmission (China): RV Reducer/Gears
- Shenzhen Inovance Technology (China): Servo Systems / Ball Screws
There is a core reason behind this:
China currently controls nearly 70% of global rare earth mining and, more critically, holds 85% to 90% of the world’s refining and separation capacity, as well as over 90% of the manufacturing capacity for rare earth magnets.
Therefore, the greatest threat is: China's export controls pose a structural overhang on U.S. robotics projects.
Beijing has demonstrated a willingness to weaponize this monopoly, as Japan has experienced firsthand.
To break dependence on robots and the Optimus supply chain and ensure the robot revolution can continue progressing domestically, Western capital needs to flow to companies rebuilding the rare earth ecosystem, including:
- Upstream mining
- Midstream separation/metallization
- Downstream magnet manufacturing
If the global number of humanoid robots reaches one billion by 2050—baseline scenario in Morgan Stanley’s model—it would require approximately 400,000 metric tons of neodymium, 80,000 metric tons of dysprosium, and 16,000 metric tons of terbium. This would amount to consuming 15% of the world’s known neodymium reserves, 25% of global dysprosium reserves, and 30% of global terbium reserves, constituting a significant demand shock.
In short: China holds control over the U.S. robotics hardware supply chain.
It is now a historic moment for the United States to invest in securing its own supply chains to ensure victory in the robotics race against China.
The key lies in rare earth elements, which are essential for producing humanoid robot hardware at competitive prices.
The following are areas that the U.S. government needs to prioritize:
Magnetic metal (for frameless torque motor)
Neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr): These "light rare earths" are essential components of NdFeB magnets.
Dysprosium (Dy) and Terbium (Tb): Rare earth elements alloyed into magnets
Samarium (Sm) and cobalt (Co): Used to manufacture SmCo magnets
Boron (B) and iron (Fe): Key stable minerals, accounting for approximately 1% of the weight of NdFeB magnets.
2. Structural metallurgy (for harmonic drives and planetary roller screws)
Titanium (Ti), Vanadium (V), and Molybdenum (Mo): Threaded shafts in harmonic drives and planetary roller screws
Niobium (Nb), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and manganese (Mn): Key microalloying elements added to structural steel to enhance toughness, prevent corrosion, and significantly reduce the weight of robotic joints.
Cerium (Ce) and Lanthanum (La): Preventing Premature Failure of Robot Gears
3. Hashrate, Perception, and Power (Brain, Eyes, and Battery)
Gallium (Ga) and germanium (Ge): Essential for advanced semiconductors, LiDAR systems, and high-frequency communication chips.
Lithium (Li), graphite (C), and copper: A single full-sized humanoid robot requires approximately 2 kilograms of lithium, 3 kilograms of graphite, and up to 6.5 kilograms of copper.
Key Companies List
Here are the most important U.S. companies that ensure the above capabilities:
1. Rare earth metals (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb, Sm, Gd):
$UUUU, $MP, $ALOY, $USAR, $LYSDY (Lynas Rare Earths), $NEO (Toronto Stock Exchange), $ILU, $ARU (Australian Securities Exchange)
2. Structural Metallurgy (Niobium, Vanadium, Titanium, Beryllium):
$ATI, $CRS, $FCX, $NB, $MTRN, $LGO
3. Hash rate, sensing, and power (gallium, germanium, graphite, battery metals):
$BMM, $VNP, $TECK, $ALB, $EAF, $ALTM, $SYR, $FCX, $AW1 (ASX)
Using a robotic joint as an example, it is a permanent magnet motor that requires a neodymium processing supply chain:
1. Neo Performance Materials (TSX: NEO)
2. $MP
3. $UUUU — Process monazite concentrate into NdPr oxide
The U.S. government should meticulously review the bill of materials (BOM) for each robotics supply chain and make substantial investments to ensure processing capacity for raw materials.
Currently, the transmission systems required for manufacturing humanoid robots, as well as the global infrastructure needed to produce these components, are highly concentrated in China.
The United States is highly vulnerable in the physical robotics supply chain; securing domestic metal and midstream processing capabilities is critical to competing with China.
The United States must increase investment in critical materials supply chains today to maintain long-term dominance in the robotics industry.