Foreign media report that investor Chamath Palihapitiya believes Bitcoin’s current price movement largely follows the pattern seen after previous halvings. According to him, after a halving, the market typically undergoes a period of adjustment to the new supply structure before entering a more pronounced upward phase.
After the halving, consolidate first, then expand.
Chamath noted that investors often take several months to reassess the supply changes after a halving, so prices may not surge immediately in the early stages. However, historical cycles show that the largest price increases typically occur between 6 and 18 months after the halving.
He noted that Bitcoin rose approximately 45 times in the 18 months following its first halving, about 28 times after the second, and about 8 times after the third. Although the returns per cycle have clearly narrowed as Bitcoin’s market size has grown, he believes this cyclical pattern remains intact.
Spot ETFs have become a new variable in this cycle.
Chamath believes that the most obvious change in this cycle, compared to previous ones, is that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have entered the market. This allows capital from the traditional financial system to gain exposure to Bitcoin through familiar investment products—a demand that did not exist in prior halving cycles.
In his view, Bitcoin is currently supported by two forces: the reduced new supply from the halving and the institutional capital inflow enabled by ETFs. Together, these factors have created new demand-side dynamics in this cycle compared to previous ones.
$1.14 million based on historical average calculations
Chamath further conducted a simple extrapolation of the current market structure using the average return multiples following the second and third halvings. According to this method, Bitcoin’s theoretical valuation is approximately $1.14 million.
However, he emphasized that this figure is merely an estimate based on historical averages and should not be viewed as a definitive prediction of future prices. The article also noted that this assessment is primarily intended to illustrate the potential long-term upside driven by halving cycles and new sources of capital.
Chamath also discussed Bitcoin’s potential role in the financial system. He believes that in the future, some countries may adopt a dual-currency system, where daily payments continue to rely on the local currency, while long-term value storage may increasingly shift toward scarce assets like Bitcoin.