BlockBeats news, on June 6, on-chain analyst Murphy posted that BTC fell below the $60,000 psychological level yesterday, but market losses and sentiment indicators did not worsen in tandem. The current 3-day average of the adjusted realized loss (EARL) stands at $1.13 billion, nearly halved compared to the figure on February 5. He believes this does not mean BTC won’t continue to decline further, but the fact that EARL has not risen further despite lower prices represents a classic structure indicative of a "bottom expectation."
If EARL represents market panic levels, STH-RUL (Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Loss) reflects the psychological pressure experienced by new investors. During the decline following the onset of a bear market, short-term holders typically reach a severe psychological breaking point, causing STH-RUL to exceed +5 standard deviations, signaling a systemic crisis. Afterward, even if prices continue to fall, STH-RUL rarely surpasses its prior peak, as holdings have already rotated at deeply unrealized loss levels—new buyers enter at lower costs, and market pressure is being absorbed.
Murphy believes that EARL and STH-RUL are currently sending consistent signals that market panic is being absorbed, not spreading. Although prices are making new lows, the loss indicators are not simultaneously reaching new highs—this is not a sufficient condition for a bottom, but historically, true bottoms have almost always exhibited this characteristic. Bottoming is a process of repeated pressure and absorption, until holdings are fully transferred amid panic and new buyers’ cost basis becomes sufficiently low, at which point the price gradually loses momentum to decline further.