ME News reports that on May 18 (UTC+8), blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, in collaboration with CBS’s “60 Minutes,” released an exclusive investigation revealing nine interconnected accounts on Polymarket suspected of using insider information to bet on U.S.-Iran military actions, collectively earning over $2.4 million with a win rate of 98%. The nine wallet addresses have been publicly disclosed in the original post. Bubblemaps began its analysis on February 28, examining markets related to the initial U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, and identified four accounts that registered days before the event and placed large bets at low odds, each earning approximately $400,000. Through temporal and volume analysis, these were linked to five additional accounts, bringing the total to nine. These accounts were almost exclusively focused on U.S. military-related markets, with funds flowing through centralized exchanges during fixed time windows into a shared wallet network. The accounts showed pre-positioning activity days before key events—including the February 28 strikes on Iran, the killing of Soleimani, and the announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire—and had also placed small losing bets on February 20, likely to evade detection. Bubblemaps stated it could not link these accounts to specific entities but emphasized that “luck cannot explain this win rate.” This case far exceeds the scale of the previously exposed case involving U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was federally charged for profiting approximately $400,000 through insider information on Venezuelan military operations. Former CFTC official Rob Schwartz characterized such behavior as “a new form of insider trading.” Currently, the CFTC has only one commissioner in office, limiting its enforcement capacity. (Source: Foresight News)
Bubblemaps Reveals 9 Polymarket Accounts Profited Over $2.4 Million by Betting on a U.S.-Iran War
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Summary
Using on-chain data, Bubblemaps identified nine Polymarket accounts allegedly using insider information to bet on U.S.-Iran military actions, earning over $2.4 million with a 98% win rate. These accounts placed large bets days before major events, including the February 28 Iran attack and the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. On-chain analysis revealed small losing bets on February 20 to evade detection. Bubblemaps could not identify the individuals involved but stated that such a win rate was highly unlikely to occur by chance. This case surpasses the $400,000 insider betting incident involving a U.S. Army sergeant.
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