BTC Surpasses $80,000, but Leverage-Driven Rally Raises Concerns

Wintermute released its weekly market analysis: for the week ending May 11, BTC broke above $80,000 for the first time since January, peaking near $83,000 and effectively surpassing the 200-day moving average, which had acted as resistance for seven months. However, Wintermute noted that this rally was primarily driven by leverage—open interest surged by $10 billion in one month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume remained at its lowest level in nearly two years, characteristic of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Funding rates remain predominantly negative, indicating further short squeeze potential; however, covering shorts does not equate to a genuine market-wide bullish consensus. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the institutional buying thesis remains intact: ETFs recorded net inflows of $623 million for the week; Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF attracted $194 million in its first month with no single-day net outflows, and exchange BTC reserves remain at a seven-year low. Yet Wintermute cautioned that the RSI has entered overbought territory; if spot buying fails to follow after the squeeze subsides, prices could face a sharp correction. On the macro front, the U.S. Nasdaq rose 4.5% for the week and the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, both reaching all-time highs. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations (115K vs. 65K forecast). U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed, as Iran’s demands for sovereignty and compensation were rejected by Trump, causing oil prices to swing violently between $88 and $113 during the week, though equities showed little reaction. This week’s focus is on the weekly...