BTC's average loss cost falls to $93,600 as high-level trapped positions exit

ChainCatcher report: On-chain analyst Murphy noted that the average cost basis of all loss-making Bitcoin positions has fallen below $100,000, currently at $93,600, meaning that BTC would reach the market’s average breakeven point if it rebounds to $93,600. During the two sharp declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large volume of deeply underwater holders chose to sell at a loss, lowering the average cost basis of all unrealized losses. Additionally, the 30-day average deviation coefficient between the average cost basis of loss-making positions and the current BTC price is 1.4, whereas during the bottoms of the past three bear markets, this coefficient was consistently above 2. A deviation coefficient of 2 or higher typically indicates the market has entered an absolute bottom zone, at which point BTC’s price was less than 50% of the average cost basis of loss-making positions. To meet this historical condition, the low point of this cycle would need to fall to $46,800. However, historical patterns do not always repeat—this bear market may be significantly less painful than any previous one. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, in the market predicting whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.