ChainThink reports that on July 22, Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm wrote that the June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020, with overall inflation dropping from 4.2% to 3.5%.
The market subsequently priced in a hold at the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 75% to 63%. Geopolitical risks also rose simultaneously.
The U.S. has reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports and carried out airstrikes for the fourth consecutive night, causing Brent crude to rise 15.54% for the week, peaking at $87 per barrel, as pressure builds to rekindle energy inflation. Amid this, the crypto market strengthened against the trend in risk assets this week.
Within minutes after the CPI data release, BTC rose from approximately $62,000 to $64,900, and ETH gained 7% in a single day to $1,884;
CoinGlass data shows that approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETFs saw a combined net inflow of about $191 million on Tuesday and Wednesday, ending a streak of 10 consecutive days of net outflows.
Wintermute noted that this week’s strength in the crypto market reflects market structure recovery rather than a confirmed trend. If ETF net inflows remain consistent throughout the week and BTC holds above $66,000, the relative strength signal will be confirmed;
If Brent breaks $90 or the Strait of Hormuz is officially closed, the disinflation trade may face repricing.