BTC OG Insider Whale Analyst Predicts Long-Term War Impact on Oil and Markets

Huo Xing Finance reports that on April 5, Garrett Jin, agent of the “BTC OG Insider Whale,” published a lengthy article titled “Oil Is War,” arguing that oil is not a byproduct of the U.S.-Iran conflict but its core driver, with all other economic and financial variables—stock markets, bonds, cryptocurrencies, Federal Reserve policy, food prices, etc.—being downstream consequences of oil prices. Whoever correctly anticipates oil trends can understand the broader market’s direction. Garrett Jin believes the U.S.-Iran conflict has surpassed expectations of “surgical airstrikes” and has evolved into a prolonged war of attrition; the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause a structural rise in oil prices, not merely a temporary spike. The conflict has escalated into a protracted war, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for over five weeks, U.S. ground forces mobilizing, and no clear path to victory or signs of rapid de-escalation. Iran’s strategy is not to win, but to make the war costly enough to force Washington to seek withdrawal. The most likely scenario is a prolonged war of attrition, which aligns with U.S. interests—compelling global buyers to shift toward North American energy sources while high oil prices stimulate domestic U.S. production. The market has priced in the war, but not yet its duration. Every oil price pullback presents a buying opportunity. As U.S. ground forces become fully engaged and a swift victory proves impossible, oil prices will transmit their impact to interest rates, exchange rates, equities, and credit markets. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by the end of this month is 18%, by the end of May is 34%, and by the end of June is 46%.