BTC average cost drops to $93,600 as high-price positions exit

Huoxing Finance reports that on April 5, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost basis of all unprofitable Bitcoin positions has fallen below $100,000, currently at $93,600, meaning that BTC will reach the market’s average breakeven point when it rebounds to $93,600. During the two sharp declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large volume of deeply underwater holders chose to sell at a loss, lowering the overall average cost basis of unprofitable positions—commonly referred to as “washout.” Meanwhile, the 30-day average deviation coefficient between the average cost basis of unprofitable positions and the current BTC price stands at 1.4, whereas during the bottoms of the past three bear markets, this coefficient was at least 2.0 or higher (blue waveform below). A deviation coefficient of 2.0 or higher typically indicates the market has entered an absolute bottom zone, at which point BTC’s price was less than 50% of the average cost basis of unprofitable positions. To meet this condition, the low point of this cycle would need to fall to $46,800. However, historical patterns do not always repeat; this bear market may be significantly less painful than any previous one. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, in the market predicting whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.