BTC fails to break the 80K resistance, HYPE hits new highs

This week, we continue with our structured analytical framework, examining the current price action of Bitcoin and HYPE across multiple timeframes, analyzing the bullish and bearish dynamics at key resistance and support levels, and formulating specific, actionable trading plans based on these insights.

Last week, the short position successfully realized a 2.78% profit, once again validating the trading logic of "signal-driven, discipline-focused." However, a single profitable trade does not imply that the directional assumption was necessarily correct—the market always retains the possibility of outcomes beyond our predictions.

This week’s key variable remains the battle between the resistance zone of $78,500–$79,500 and the support zone of $73,500–$75,000. The outcome will be determined by the market.

This week's key trading insights summary:

• Multi-timeframe trend structure analysis of BTC. (See Part One for details.)

• BTC this week's market outlook and medium- to short-term trading strategies. (See Part Two for details.)

• HYPE hourly chart trend structure analysis. (See Part Three for details.)

• HYPE Weekly Market Outlook and Short-Term Trading Strategy. (See Part Four for details)

Last week's trading strategy and core viewpoints market validation:

• BTC Short-Term Trading Performance: Bitcoin executed a short-term short position (1x leverage) last week, successfully generating a profit of approximately 2.78%. (See Table 1 for details)

• BTC Price Trend Forecast Verified by Market Action: In last week’s article, we noted that if the price effectively breaks below the support zone of $78,500–$79,500, it would likely test support near $75,000. The current market movement has confirmed our earlier forecast.

1. Daily Chart Trend Structure Analysis for BTC

Bitcoin _ Daily Candlestick Chart:

Figure 1

• As shown in Figure 1, since establishing a阶段性 low near $60,000 on February 6, 2026, Bitcoin’s daily chart has formed and maintained a clearly defined uptrend channel: the lower boundary is formed by connecting the lows of February 6 and March 29, while the upper boundary is drawn as a parallel line through the high of March 17.

• In our weekly review on April 27, we noted: “The current price is facing dual resistance from the upper boundary of the channel and the $79,500 to $80,600 resistance zone, making a breakout difficult.” Subsequent market movements confirmed this assessment. After nearly 20 days of contention between bulls and bears, although the price reached a new high of $82,850 on May 6 during this rally, it failed to effectively break through this resistance zone, and the price subsequently began to oscillate downward.

• Observing the current structure, the price has retraced from near the upper boundary of the channel to the middle region. If the price fails to find strong support near the middle line and regain upward momentum, the likelihood of seeking support at the lower boundary of the channel is increasing.

2. In-depth Analysis of BTC's Hourly Chart Structure

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), the correction has been ongoing since the high of $82,850 on May 6;

• On the 4-hour chart, the structure can be subdivided into an 8-segment adjustment pattern: segments “27-28” through “34-35”; Central Segment D: Formed by the overlapping segments “28-29,” “29-30,” and “30-31.”

• From the 4-hour chart structure, the 34-35 segment is expected to rebound toward the $78,500–$79,500 range. If the price encounters resistance and reverses downward without forming a valid breakout, the market is likely to continue its current range-bound consolidation and retest the key support zone of $73,500–$75,000.

1. BTC Weekly Price Movement Forecast:

This week’s key insight: Watch the battle between bulls and bears over the resistance zone of $78,500–$79,500 and the support zone of $73,500–$75,000.

2. Key Resistance Level:

• First resistance zone: $78,500–$79,500 range (near the upper and lower bands of two central zones)

• Second pressure zone: $83,500–$84,500 range (previous area of high trading volume between longs and shorts)

3. Key Support Level:

• First support level: $73,500–$75,000 range (previous key support level)

• Second support level: $69,500–$70,500 range (previous key support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Impact from Sudden News)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 3

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, based on the trading rules, the market's intermediate trend has not yet been clearly defined; therefore, the intermediate-term strategy for this week remains cash-neutral with no positions.

② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of your position size, set a stop-loss level, and identify arbitrage opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using a 30-minute or 60-minute time frame for trading).

③. For short-term trading, to dynamically respond to the complex evolution of the market, we have pre-established two specific action plans, A and B.

• Option A: Rebound faces resistance; sell on rallies.

• Open Position: When the coin price rebounds to the $78,500–$79,500 range and encounters resistance, combined with a quantitative model’s top signal, consider establishing a short position of less than 30%.

• Risk Management: Initial stop-loss level set above $80,600.

• Close Positions: When the price adjusts near key support levels and aligns with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

• Option B: A valid breakdown below support signals a顺势 short position.

• Open Position: If the price effectively breaks below the support zone of $73,500–$75,000 and is confirmed by a model top signal, consider establishing a short position of less than 30%.

• Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above $76,500.

• Close Position: When the price declines to a key support level combined with model signals, gradually close your position to realize profits.

HYPE 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in Figure 4, the upward movement of HYPE from its low of $38.14 on May 14 can be divided into a five-segment structure on the 4-hour chart: 40-41, 41-42, 42-43, 43-44, and 44-45.

2. The self-built "spread trading model" indicates that a top alert signal (white dot) has been triggered near endpoint 45.

3. From the Dynamic Quantitative Model perspective, the upward phase (44-45) has already shown weakening upward momentum near $65.

4. If the price forms a momentum bearish divergence at the "Endpoint 45" level and coincides with a top warning signal from the "Spread Trading Model," the resonance between the two significantly increases the probability of the price forming a short-term high.

1. HYPE Weekly Price Movement Forecast:

This week's key insights on HYPE:

• Monitor whether Endpoint 45 can form a short-term high since the rally began on May 14.

• If a short-term high forms, followed by clear signs of stabilization when the price retraces to a key support area (e.g., $47.50 to $50), consider a short-term long position.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-Term Trading Strategy: (Buy on Support)

Currently, follow the strategy of "avoid chasing prices blindly and buy on dips." If the price rebounds and stabilizes in the $47.5 to $50 range, combined with bottom signals triggered by two key models, consider initiating a small long position with a position size under 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

1. Short-term Trading Review: (See Table 1)

We strictly followed our operational protocol and executed a short-term (short) trade last week based on trading signals generated by our proprietary "spread trading model" and "momentum quantitative model," achieving a profit of 2.78%.

① Summary of Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Details: (Leverage * 1x)

Table 1

② Short-term Trading Review: (See Figure 6)

• Opening position strategy:

a. When the price rebounds to around $78,500, encounters resistance, and shows signs of pressure, forming a bearish "top divergence" candlestick pattern;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggers a top warning signal (white dot), and the "Momentum Quantitative Model" forms a momentum bearish divergence signal.

Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $77,782.

• Close Position Strategy:

a. When the coin price stabilizes near $75,000, the K-line forms a "bottom divergence" signal;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggers a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we fully closed our position near $75,616.

• Summary: This transaction resulted in a profit of approximately 2.78%.

BTC 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantification Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-term Trading Diagram)

1. When opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry price (breakeven point) to secure your principal.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the breakeven point at 1% profit.

4. Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit in the coin price, the stop-loss level will move up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are constantly changing; all market analysis and trading strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All viewpoints, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are based on personal technical analysis and are intended solely for personal trading journal use; they do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. Market risks exist—invest with caution and do not make decisions based on this information.