BTC fails to break through the $78,500–$79,500 resistance, while HYPE reaches new highs.

This week, we continue with our structured analytical framework, examining the current price action of Bitcoin and HYPE across multiple timeframes, analyzing the bullish and bearish dynamics at key resistance and support levels, and formulating specific, actionable trading plans based on these insights.

Last week, the short position successfully realized a 2.78% profit, once again validating the trading logic of "signal-driven, disciplined execution." However, a single profit does not imply the direction was necessarily correct—the market always retains the possibility of exceeding expectations.

This week’s key variable remains the battle between the resistance zone of $78,500–$79,500 and the support zone of $73,500–$75,000. The outcome will be determined by the market.

This week's key trading insights summary:

• BTC multi-timeframe price structure analysis. (See Part 1 for details)

• BTC this week's market outlook and short- to medium-term trading strategies. (See Part Two for details.)

• HYPE hourly chart trend structure analysis. (See Part 3 for details)

• HYPE this week's market outlook and short-term trading strategy. (See Part 4 for details)

Last week's trading strategy and core viewpoints market validation:

• BTC Short-Term Trading Performance: Bitcoin executed a short trade (1x leverage) last week, successfully generating a profit of approximately 2.78%. (See Table 1 for details)

• BTC Price Trend Forecast Verified by Market: In last week’s article, we indicated that if the price effectively breaks below the support zone of $78,500–$79,500, it would likely test support near $75,000. The current market movement has confirmed our earlier forecast.

1. Daily chart trend structure analysis for BTC

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 1

• As shown in Figure 1, since establishing a阶段性 low near $60,000 on February 6, 2026, Bitcoin’s daily chart has formed and maintained a clearly defined uptrend channel: the lower boundary is formed by connecting the lows of February 6 and March 29, while the upper boundary is drawn as a parallel line through the high of March 17.

• In our April 27 Weekly Review, we noted: “The current price is facing dual resistance from the upper boundary of the channel and the $79,500 to $80,600 resistance zone, making a breakout difficult.” Subsequent market movements confirmed this assessment. After nearly 20 days of contention between bulls and bears, although the price reached a new high of $82,850 on May 6 during this rally, it failed to effectively break through this resistance zone, and the price subsequently began to oscillate downward.

• Observing the current structure, the price has retraced from near the upper boundary of the channel to the mid-channel area. If the price fails to find strong support near the mid-channel and regain upward momentum, the likelihood of seeking support at the lower boundary of the channel is increasing.

2. In-depth Analysis of BTC Hourly Price Structure

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), a correction has been ongoing since the high of $82,850 on May 6;

• On the 4-hour chart, the structure can be subdivided into an 8-segment adjustment pattern: segments “27-28” through “34-35”; Central Segment D: formed by the overlapping segments 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31.

• Looking at the 4-hour chart structure, the 34-35 segment is expected to rebound toward the $78,500–$79,500 range. If price encounters resistance and reverses downward from this zone without forming a valid breakout, the market is likely to continue its current range-bound consolidation and retest the key support band at $73,500–$75,000.

1. BTC Weekly Price Movement Forecast:

This week’s key insight: Watch the battle between bulls and bears over the resistance zone of $78,500–$79,500 and the support zone of $73,500–$75,000.

2. Key resistance level:

• First resistance zone: $78,500 to $79,500 range (near the upper and lower bands of two central zones)

• Second resistance zone: $83,500 to $84,500 (previous area of high trading volume between longs and shorts)

3. Key Support Level:

• First support level: $73,500–$75,000 range (previous key support level)

• Second support level: $69,500–$70,500 range (previous key support level)

4. This Week’s Trading Strategy (Excluding Impact from Sudden News)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 3

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 3), based on the trading rules, the market's intermediate trend has not yet been clearly defined; therefore, the intermediate-term strategy for this week remains cash-neutral with a wait-and-see approach.

② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of your position to set a stop-loss, and identify arbitrage opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use a 30-minute or 60-minute time frame for trading.)

③. For short-term trading, to dynamically respond to the complex evolution of the market, we have pre-established two specific operational plans, A and B.

• Option A: Rebound faces resistance; sell on rallies.

• Open Position: When the price rebounds to the $78,500–$79,500 range and encounters resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, consider establishing a short position of less than 30%.

• Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above $80,600.

• Close positions: When adjusted near key support levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

• Option B: A valid breakdown below support, trend-following short position.

• Open position: When the price effectively breaks below the $73,500–$75,000 support zone and is confirmed by a model top signal, consider establishing a short position of less than 30%.

• Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above $76,500.

• Close positions: When the price declines to a key support level combined with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

HYPE_4 hour K-chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in (Figure 4), the upward movement of HYPE from its low of $38.14 on May 14 can be divided into a five-segment structure on the 4-hour chart: 40-41, 41-42, 42-43, 43-44, and 44-45.

2. The self-built "spread trading model" indicates that a top alert signal (white dot) has been triggered near endpoint 45.

3. From the perspective of the Dynamic Quantitative Model, the upward phase (44-45) has shown weakening upward momentum near $65.

4. If the price forms a momentum bearish divergence at Endpoint 45 and coincides with a top alert signal from the Spread Trading Model, creating a resonance effect, the probability of the price forming a short-term high at this level increases significantly.

1. HYPE this week's price trend forecast:

This week's HYPE key insights:

• Observe whether Endpoint 45 can form a short-term high since the rally began on May 14.

• If a short-term high forms, followed by clear signs of stabilization when the price retraces to a key support area (e.g., $47.5 to $50), a short-term long opportunity may arise.

2. HYPE This Week’s Short-Term Trading Strategy: (Buy on Support)

Currently, follow the strategy: "Avoid chasing prices blindly; buy on dips." If the price retraces to the $47.5–$50 range, shows signs of stabilization, and aligns with bottom signals triggered by two key models, consider a light long position with a position size under 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

1. Short-term trading review: (see Table 1)

We strictly followed our operational protocol and executed a short-term (short) trade last week based on trading signals generated by our proprietary "spread trading model" and "momentum quantification model," achieving a profit of 2.78%.

① Summary of Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Details: (Leverage *1x)

Table 1

② Short-term Trading Review: (See Figure 6)

• Opening position strategy:

a. When the price rebounds to around $78,500, encounters resistance, and shows signs of pressure, the candlestick forms a "top divergence" bearish signal;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggers a top warning signal (white dot), and the "Momentum Quantitative Model" forms a momentum bearish divergence signal.

Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $77,782.

• Close Position Strategy:

a. When the coin price stabilizes near $75,000 and the K-line forms a "bottom divergence" signal;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggers a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), aligning with the "Momentum Quantitative Model" to form a bottom resonance signal.

Therefore, we fully closed our position near $75,616.

• Summary: This transaction resulted in a profit of approximately 2.78%.

BTC 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-term trading diagram)

1. When opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry price (breakeven point) to secure your principal.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: For every additional 1% profit in price, the stop-loss level moves同步 by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are constantly changing; all market analysis and trading strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All viewpoints, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are intended solely for personal trading logs; they do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. The market carries risks—invest with caution and do not make decisions based on this information.